Several people have pointed out a forecast (pdf) by Jeff Rubin of the brokerage CIBC. I have no idea if this is considered serious work and it seems likely a broad spectrum of predictions exist.
Rising oil prices will certainly be devastating to those with lower incomes, but they won't flock to the bus as public transit is rare in the US and almost non-existent in poorer regions of the country. The report does note that Europeans have spent decades building infrastructure and laying out cities and towns with an eye to high energy prices - there is going to be little flexibility in the US.
The future has a way of surprising us, but I have a hard time believing we will see lower oil prices unless there is a huge economic downturn here and/or in places like China and India. We could try conserving, but there is little indication that anything beyond modest amounts are taking place.
If oil does keep increasing, the perception of pain is likely to be non-linear and it makes sense to unload things like powerboats and SUVs now while the prices are relatively high. They may be worth about as much as the fuel in them in a few years.
So would this be good or bad for global warming? A case can probably be made either way. It hinges on how much coal will be used. It takes time to build plants - especially coal to liquid fuel - so there may be a period where less carbon dioxide is released followed by an increase if we are really stupid. Time will tell.
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