Deluge, Drought, Fire and Earthquake
California's Four Seasons
- a plaque at Caltech
In the early 70s two researchers began to sift through long term weather data-sets hunting for patterns other than seasonal variation. They had access to a late 60s super computer and a powerful processing technique called the Fast Fourier Transform.1
The data set was from an isolated weather station near the equator and international date line. Every day a weather balloon would be tracked created a time series. An interesting pattern emerged - about every month and a half barometric pressure dropped and wind speeds picked up. It looked like the signature of a storm and was interesting enough that they analyzed data from weather stations throughout the region. A weather oscillation in the tropics of the Indian Ocean emerged and was named for them. Now it appears the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is one of the most important weather patterns on the planet.
(click for animation)
Computers and computation have improved enormously in the forty years since the MJO's discovery, but only recently have they been powerful enough to enable researchers to ask questions deep enough to build predictive models. The mechanism is far from well understood, but it appears it impacts other systems. It is connected to Indian and Australian monsoons, the Pineapple Express and perhaps most dramatically for Californians the El Niño.
This year several huge warm wet disturbances have amplified the developing El Niño to produce some intense hurricanes in the Pacific as well as possibly suppressing activity in the Atlantic. California may well be in the crosshairs of an exceptionally strong El Niño event. It is unlikely to bring much drought relief as the snow pack is unlikely to increase much, but it could bring floods and mudslides. Ah the seasons.
Outside of the research community the MJO is not well-known, but understanding it may well be central to understanding weather on the planet and its behavior in a warming world could have dramatic impacts. But if it is only beginning to be understood now why mention it? It turns out enough is known that the uncertainty for certain classes of events has been reduced to the point where predictions can be made. One organization has managed to model it well enough to be able to make accurate enough cold snap predictions over a month out - far enough that traders are using it to make bets on heating fuels.
Science is sedimentary. By the beginning of the 20th century pencil and paper calculations and a few simple measurements were enough to suggest that human caused release of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere could raise the average temperature of the Earth. By the 1960s a clear signal was emerging and a few people began to make predications. By 1980 alarm bells had gone off in the research division of Exxon and at a few University and government labs. The simple models had small enough error bars that it appeared we might be heading for some rather bad sailing. The 90s saw a shrinkage of the error bars along with enough insight that deeper questions arose about mechanisms. Error bars shrunk and new insight and questions came. By around 2000 climate scientists had a sound enough case that most scientists in similar fields were agreeing with them. The signs were strong enough that it was clear action was necessary, but money and politics got in the way.
We won't understand nature perfectly - but there are points along the way where our understanding is sufficient to bring invention and change. There is an art and a science in knowing how to determine when the error bars are small enough to be useful. But progress will continue and maybe we'll get a handle on each of California's seasons.
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1 The CDC 6600 had a 10 MHz clock and 128 K of memory in the $10 million maxed out configuration. Comparisons with current technology are difficult, but the S1 module in the Apple Watch has a clock, slowed for battery life, that is 52 times as fast and 256 K of on-chip memory cache as well as 8 GB of flash that it can access faster than the CDC.
The Fast Fourier Transform reduces the computation required for a Fourier transform from O(n2) to O(n log n) where n is the data size. For realistic data sets this was worth decades of Moore's Law. All of us are aware of the fantastic progress that has been made in silicon over the past six decades, but improvements in algorithms have also made an enormous contribution.
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Recipe corner
No recipe this time other than noting beans are a favorite. I like some of the dried varieties from Rancho Gordo and use their basic bean cooking technique. It will work for any mostly fresh dried beans.
RANCHO GORDO Cooking: Basic Beans from Steve Sando on Vimeo.
staying warm and celebration a common tradition
It is really chilly for about the first time this Winter and I found myself out in the cold without gloves and a cap for a bit too long. In theory I shouldn't mind much - after all, I did grow up in Montana and remember taking walks in -40° weather and fierce blizzards.
About a year ago I was fortunate enough to have made contact again with Jeri - a fellow classmate from Great Falls High. In an email exchange a poem came up. It turned out both of us had memorized it in different junior high schools and both of us have taken delight in reciting it over the years. The poet was a Scottsman who spent most of his life in Canada, becoming famous for poems associated with the Yukon and the gold rush.
A bit earlier I met Reggie Watts at a TEDx talk. Both of us had "performed" and somehow found ourselves chatting afterwards.1 In my talk I mentioned that I was from Montana and he told me he grew up there too. Another minute of talking revealed we had lived within 500 feet of each other and went to the same high school albeit separated by a couple of decades.
It turned out Reggie knew the same poem and it was the introduction to the word moil for both of us.
The world seemed very small as we talked that night.
By now you're probably curious ... I'm afraid I couldn't get all of it from memory and had to cheat a bit. I guess I'm out of practice. My guess is Reggie and Jeri wouldn't have any difficulty.
Turn the lights down, light some candles and crack a window to the cold.Read it outloud armed with a cup of peppermint hot chocolate (recipe follows).
The Cremation of Sam McGee
by Robert W. Service
There are strange things done in the midnight sun
By the men who moil for gold;
The Arctic trails have their secret tales
That would make your blood run cold;
The Northern Lights have seen queer sights,
But the queerest they ever did see
Was that night on the marge of Lake Lebarge
I cremated Sam McGee.
Now Sam McGee was from Tennessee, where the cotton blooms and blows.
Why he left his home in the South to roam 'round the Pole, God only knows.
He was always cold, but the land of gold seemed to hold him like a spell;
Though he'd often say in his homely way that "he'd sooner live in hell."
On a Christmas Day we were mushing our way over the Dawson trail.
Talk of your cold! through the parka's fold it stabbed like a driven nail.
If our eyes we'd close, then the lashes froze till sometimes we couldn't see;
It wasn't much fun, but the only one to whimper was Sam McGee.
And the dogs were fed, and the stars o'erhead were dancing heel and toe,
He turned to me, and "Cap," says he, "I'll cash in this trip, I guess;
And if I do, I'm asking that you won't refuse my last request."
Well, he seemed so low that I couldn't say no; then he says with a sort of moan:
"It's the cursèd cold, and it's got right hold till I'm chilled clean through to the bone.
Yet 'tain't being dead—it's my awful dread of the icy grave that pains;
So I want you to swear that, foul or fair, you'll cremate my last remains."
A pal's last need is a thing to heed, so I swore I would not fail;
And we started on at the streak of dawn; but God! he looked ghastly pale.
He crouched on the sleigh, and he raved all day of his home in Tennessee;
And before nightfall a corpse was all that was left of Sam McGee.
There wasn't a breath in that land of death, and I hurried, horror-driven,
With a corpse half hid that I couldn't get rid, because of a promise given;
It was lashed to the sleigh, and it seemed to say: "You may tax your brawn and brains,
But you promised true, and it's up to you to cremate those last remains."
Now a promise made is a debt unpaid, and the trail has its own stern code.
In the days to come, though my lips were dumb, in my heart how I cursed that load.
In the long, long night, by the lone firelight, while the huskies, round in a ring,
Howled out their woes to the homeless snows— O God! how I loathed the thing.
And every day that quiet clay seemed to heavy and heavier grow;
And on I went, though the dogs were spent and the grub was getting low;
The trail was bad, and I felt half mad, but I swore I would not give in;
And I'd often sing to the hateful thing, and it hearkened with a grin.
Till I came to the marge of Lake Lebarge, and a derelict there lay;
It was jammed in the ice, but I saw in a trice it was called the "Alice May."
And I looked at it, and I thought a bit, and I looked at my frozen chum;
Then "Here," said I, with a sudden cry, "is my cre-ma-tor-eum."
Some planks I tore from the cabin floor, and I lit the boiler fire;
Some coal I found that was lying around, and I heaped the fuel higher;
The flames just soared, and the furnace roared—such a blaze you seldom see;
And I burrowed a hole in the glowing coal, and I stuffed in Sam McGee.
Then I made a hike, for I didn't like to hear him sizzle so;
And the heavens scowled, and the huskies howled, and the wind began to blow.
It was icy cold, but the hot sweat rolled down my cheeks, and I don't know why;
And the greasy smoke in an inky cloak went streaking down the sky.
I do not know how long in the snow I wrestled with grisly fear;
But the stars came out and they danced about ere again I ventured near;
I was sick with dread, but I bravely said: "I'll just take a peep inside.
I guess he's cooked, and it's time I looked"; ... then the door I opened wide.
And there sat Sam, looking cool and calm, in the heart of the furnace roar;
And he wore a smile you could see a mile, and he said: "Please close that door.
It's fine in here, but I greatly fear you'll let in the cold and storm—
Since I left Plumtree, down in Tennessee, it's the first time I've been warm."
There are strange things done in the midnight sun
By the men who moil for gold;
The Arctic trails have their secret tales
That would make your blood run cold;
The Northern Lights have seen queer sights,
But the queerest they ever did see
Was that night on the marge of Lake Lebarge
I cremated Sam McGee.
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1 TEDx Gotham. I'm afraid my talk wasn't great and was very much in the shadow of Regge's amazing performance. Mine was followed by a wonderful talk architect Craig Dykers and then the electric Juliette Powell. As a speaker it probably makes sense to stay away from events with such serious talent.
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Recipe Corner
Somehow a nice warm soup seems appropriate. This one makes good use of carrots - use a rich vegetable broth, water just won't work. As always all amounts are approximate
Carrot Soup
Ingredients
Technique
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Technique
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