It was the beginning of Spring in 2014 and there was electricity in the air. I've only seen scientific drama at that level a few times. First the leaks and then a well-known team made a dramatic announcement. These dramatic events can be confirmation of a radical hypothesis or sometimes it's Nature proclaiming how limited human imagination really is with something completely unexpected. This time it appeared to be confirmation of a beautiful idea. If it held up it would signal the potential of a new chapter in physics and cosmology. A few people thought about shopping for suits that would be appropriate at a formal event in Stockholm.
For about fifty years we've known the Big Bang couldn't be the primordial event. It was not the beginning of our Universe. There were a conjectures .. the most interesting came from Alan Guth who proposed an enormous mind-blowing-even-by-the-standards-of-cosmology inflation that took the Universe from something unimaginably small to something more the size of a baseball in a tiny sliver of time. Over the years it was modified and tweaked and, although unconfirmed, many of us fell back on it to think about the pre-Big Bang because it nicely predicated what followed. It had become a standard bias - one that people would abandon if proven wrong - but a bias nonetheless.
The conjecture was developed into a testable hypothesis by a few groups.1 The first report came from an experiment at the South Pole called BICEP2 in 2014. They saw a high quality signal that implied cosmic inflation. I noted my own excitement at the time.
During the year that followed the serious skepticism of science took hold. The team was known to be careful. There are several things you do in any physics experiment to check your apparatus, how you handle information, biases and errors. Ultimately you hope that someone else has a similar result with a different approach and apparatus.
There's a lot of preparatory work. You need to understand what processes might mimic what you might be looking for. Usually it's not a blind hunt.. you're guided by theory looking for something quite specific. Discovery is finding it or finding the unexpected. It's fun to make theorists go back to the drawing board. Most of them agree.
A good deal of thought and computer modeling goes into designing the experiment and understanding exactly what you should see - rediscovering well-known and agreed upon experiments. If you can't get this foundational piece right, no one will believe you. It turns out this step is where many of the data analysis paths are fleshed out. This part, by the way, is where playfulness is essential.
You need to understand what are known as "backgrounds" - events that mimic what you might be looking for. There are null tests where you put a detector in a shielded box and understand the noise it produces. These can get sophisticated. Then there are calibrations where you see if you can measure known signals with all parts of your experiment. Currently a hot topic in astrophysics is understanding what went on in the Universe when the first stars formed. Unfortunately there wasn't any light - it was a dark age. But there's a signal from hydrogen atoms that can be detected. The process is well-known in radio astronomy and regularly used, but tuning into the dark age is leading edge work. To sort out the background noise astronomers pointed a radio telescope at the Moon during the last lunar eclipse. The noise component from the Sun would be missing and they'd be able to calibrate their apparatus and computational approach. The signal was beautiful - the reflection of the rest of the Universe from the Moon. Most of it turned out to be the Milky Way and the animated gif shows the result.
There are also jack-knife tests to remove regular occurring biases. If you were studying car traffic flow you'd note rush hours are busy and weekends aren't. So you break up the data into chunks and examine them separately to see how they compare. The need for good enough random numbers often turns up here.
You constantly have to check the state of your apparatus and filters. In an experiment of any size there's always something broken and something malfunction. These have to be noted and accounted for. It's not uncommon to spend a significant amount of time looking for problems.
Then there's the human problem. How broad and deep is the team? In the case of BICEP2 there wasn't any communication with people who did observational galactic astronomy. When the results were published they noted there was a background that hadn't been accounted for. It seemed obscure to the team and to most of us, but in the end it was nearly fatal. The probability of discovery and confirmation dropped dramatically. About a year later another experiment drove the nail home. Inflation wasn't dead, but their experimental approach couldn't detect it.
And then there are dragons. If someone asks you what's in your driveway and you tell them a car, both of you are generally satisfied. But if you tell them it's a dragon ... well then you have some explaining to do. Reporting dragons can color fields. A classic example came during the 60s.
Joe Webber was an outstanding experimental physicist who thought he had come up with a way to detect what Einstein predicted, but said would never be detected ... gravity waves. He carefully eliminated many sources of noise and ended up seeing a signal. He didn't have much in the way of theoretical guidance to know how big the signal was and he thought he was careful enough, so he published.
The problem was no one else was able to find a signal. For the next few decades no one saw anything and the field was nearly dead quiet for about thirty years. There were theoretical hints that big advances in detector technology might find a signal and, through luck and enormous work, the Laser Interferometer Gravitational Wave Observatory - LIGO - was born. About twenty years later it bore fruit and an advance as important as Galileo's telescope was made. But people had to be careful... very careful. How do you deal with human sociology? What if people expect something to be there - or not - and these biases get built into data taking, algorithms and the final results.
They had a neat idea
The LIGO physicists, astrophysicists and engineers got the signal they were looking for. About four hundred people went to work trying to prove or disprove it. About six months later they knew they had something. The team leaders gave their thumbs up, champagne came out and several lengthy papers were written. As they were getting ready to send the papers for peer review a senior researcher held a town meeting. They had been working on a faked signal - a devilishly clever faked signal.
They needed to go back and understand what they were doing at a much deeper level. They had too many biases. Since then there have been several false alarms and about a half dozen real signals. They have developed one of the most careful cultures on the planet using their blind injection technique.
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Carl Sagan wrote extensively on critical thinking. Perhaps his best non-technical piece on the subject is a chapter in The Demon-Haunted World: Science as a Candle in the Dark. The specific chapter is The Fine Art of Baloney Detection. The type of skepticism is useful far beyond science... I'm thinking of advertising, social media, politics...
The kit is brought out as a matter of course whenever new ideas are offered for consideration. If the new idea survives examination by the tools in our kit, we grant it warm, although tentative, acceptance. If you’re so inclined, if you don’t want to buy baloney even when it’s reassuring to do so, there are precautions that can be taken; there’s a tried-and-true, consumer-tested method.
he offers nine tools - read the chapter for the detail
Wherever possible there must be independent confirmation of the “facts.”
Encourage substantive debate on the evidence by knowledgeable proponents of all points of view.
Arguments from authority carry little weight — “authorities” have made mistakes in the past. They will do so again in the future. Perhaps a better way to say it is that in science there are no authorities; at most, there are experts.
Spin more than one hypothesis. If there’s something to be explained, think of all the different ways in which it could be explained. Then think of tests by which you might systematically disprove each of the alternatives. What survives, the hypothesis that resists disproof in this Darwinian selection among “multiple working hypotheses,” has a much better chance of being the right answer than if you had simply run with the first idea that caught your fancy.
Try not to get overly attached to a hypothesis just because it’s yours. It’s only a way station in the pursuit of knowledge. Ask yourself why you like the idea. Compare it fairly with the alternatives. See if you can find reasons for rejecting it. If you don’t, others will.
Quantify. If whatever it is you’re explaining has some measure, some numerical quantity attached to it, you’ll be much better able to discriminate among competing hypotheses. What is vague and qualitative is open to many explanations. Of course there are truths to be sought in the many qualitative issues we are obliged to confront, but finding them is more challenging.
If there’s a chain of argument, every link in the chain must work (including the premise) — not just most of them.
Occam’s Razor. This convenient rule-of-thumb urges us when faced with two hypotheses that explain the data equally well to choose the simpler.
Always ask whether the hypothesis can be, at least in principle, falsified. Propositions that are untestable, unfalsifiable are not worth much. Consider the grand idea that our Universe and everything in it is just an elementary particle — an electron, say — in a much bigger Cosmos. But if we can never acquire information from outside our Universe, is not the idea incapable of disproof? You must be able to check assertions out. Inveterate skeptics must be given the chance to follow your reasoning, to duplicate your experiments and see if they get the same result.
He goes on and notes we are vulnerable to common pitfalls of common sense and lists twenty common ones... the list is excellent and exceptionally appropriate these days.
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1 In the physical science rough ideas are conjectures.. If you can test them they are elevated to hypothesis. Theory usually refers to something that is well understood and tested by several approaches. It is a fairly high bar. In particle physics it means being observed with an uncertainty lower than one part in three million - preferably by multiple approaches. This is one of those differences in definitions that causes confusion when communicating with the public where 'theory' usually means someone's idea -no matter how good or bad. I'll be a bit more specific as these ideas can be used to one degree or another outside of science.
I'll add that cosmology and astrophysics produce the most mind blowing graphs I've encountered. Math can be more dramatic, but these are trying to find a visual vocabulary to describe Nature.
one of the four great chinese innovations
As I paged through the old book, a paper slid out and fell to the floor...
The book was a bound collection of magazine articles on the development of television and may have been from a personal library as there were several volumes from the late 1920s to the beginning of WWII. The text was underlined and the margins were full of notes, drawings, schematics, simple equations, and a few ripped pieces of paper as page markers. Hardly pristine, but much more interesting. Unfortunately I wasn't able to find any indication of who the author was.
The piece of paper was more interesting. A folded letter without envelope, it was in a different hand from the book's annotations and was signed V. Zworykin. The salutation didn't ring a bell, but maybe it was the book's owner. It was dated 1931 and mostly devoted to a hand-drawn schematic of what appeared to be the electronics to drive the coils of a cathode ray tube for a television camera. There was also an artifact that appeared to be a coffee stain.
So much and so little.
About that time Vladimir Zworykin, one of the two principal inventors of a practical television system, was doing fundamental work for David Sarnoff at RCA. There was a good deal of industrial intrigue as the other inventor - Philo Farnsworth - was on a better track, but ultimately was ripped off by Sarnoff - the techno robber baron of the day. It was a tiny window into a period of white hot technology development and competition from a period where standards and a winner had not yet emerged.
The book struck me as too expensive so I tucked the paper back into the book and returned it to its shelf. A month later I changed my mind and drove back to Princeton. The book was still there, but the paper was missing.
Paper is a remarkable technology. Writing on high quality low acid paper stored in a low humidity environment should last for thousands of years. There are thousands of varieties ranging from extremely inexpensive disposable paper to the finest stationery and photographic stock. When used with a pen or pencil the user experience can be a delight for both writer and reader. There is a certain magic in the lost note from the hand and age of someone who is no longer around and a handwritten letter from a friend can amplify its written message.
My sister is an artist with a taste for fine inks and fountain pens. I like pen and ink but she has been trying to get me to come over to a proper writing instrument. I'd do it but I have a poor hand posture that causes problems with the nib. I do appreciate good paper for letters, back of the envelop calculations and sketching. Nothing in the digital world comes close.
We tend to think of plants as machines for converting light from the Sun into energy locked in the chemical bonds of a sugar. In fact they go way beyond that making very specialized materials like the cellulose that are important structural elements that give them shape Cellulose is a polysaccharide - a long chain of linked sugars.1 Molecular chains attach to form thin microfibrils which, in turn, bundle to form thicker microfibrils that are a few microns long - end to end a few dozen would be about as long as the diameter of an average human hair. These, glued together with other engineered materials, are stitched together to give the plant its strength and shape. Fantastic self assembling nano-engineering.
The trick to making paper is to form a wet mass of cellulose and dry it to form a fiber mat. This isn't terribly difficult if you extract the cellulose from cotton, but wood is much less expensive so most of our paper starts out as a tree.
Wood is another remarkable substance - a composite material composed of cellulose fibers bound together by a glue called lignin. It can be rigid and stable for centuries. All we have to do to go from wood to paper is somehow disentangle the cellulose from the lignin - a process sometimes described as similar to getting chewing gum out of your hair.
There are variations but general recipe is to grind the wood into small bits and boil them with some chemicals to break the lignin bonds to free the cellulose fibers. Separate the cellulose and you get a pulp that can be poured onto a flat surface and allowed to dry. The result is paper and a few millennia of effort have given a large variety with very different characteristics. You can feel a bit of texture, but at human scale it seems very flat. Zoom in with a microscope and even at 100 times magnification its microstructure is apparent.
Much can be done engineering the tangled mess to create specific papers. Bleach it and add from chalk dust and you get a white paper. Coatings and process can control how deeply ink soaking into the paper - if at all. A good stationery paper allows the ink to soak in just enough to become part of the paper forming a bit of a composite material that is very robust over time. If the paper is too glossy the ink pools on the surface and smears, and if it is too absorbent the ink smears in the paper. The surface roughness is engineered to give a nice interface to a pen's nib or the tip of a pencil. People develop preferences that depend on the task.
Many papers have the ability to hold a crease - something lacking in most other materials. Cellulose fibers partly break at the crease - the fibers to either side are unaffected and the amount of breakage is determined by the paper type. Kids use of this without realizing the nanoscale realignments that are taking place under their finger tips. Most of us are happy idiot savants when paper airplanes are being made.
There is far too much detail to talk about - after all, this is the result of some very clever invention and craftsmanship over a few thousand years - but I'll end with two things.
The 'weight' of a paper bothered me for a long time. I usually buy a 20 pound weight, but a ream of 500 sheets weighs about five pounds on my scale. It turns out the 8.5 x 11 inch sheets are cut from a larger sheet and 500 sheets of that weighs 20 pounds. The ISO standard used in the rest of the world is more sensible - the weight of the paper in grams per square meter.
A friend realized his thesis - the work about about four years - was going to be uninteresting to almost everyone. He put a five dollar bill halfway through it and checked a year later to see if anyone had taken the bait. Nothing. After ten years he thought it would be right to sweeten the pot. For over a decade a crisp Ben Franklin has been waiting for someone along with a stamped addressed envelop and a request asking why the finder bothered to look... Write only memory...
Perhaps some day I'll end up with a fountain pen. For now the act of creating personal letters is important to me and lesser tools are just fine. I'm not terribly good at expressing myself in words, but personal letters are rare these days and the act of writing is special.
“GOOSE, n. A bird that supplies quills for writing. These, by some occult process of nature, are penetrated and suffused with various degrees of the bird's intellectual energies and emotional character, so that when inked and drawn mechanically across paper by a person called an "author," there results a very fair and accurate transcript of the fowl's thought and feeling. The difference in geese, as discovered by this ingenious method, is considerable: many are found to have only trivial and insignificant powers, but some are seen to be very great geese indeed.” - Ambrose Bierce, The Devil's Dictionary
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1 (C6H10O5)n, where n can ranges from a few hundred to several thousand. It stores energy - it burns well, but our bodies can't metabolize it.
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Recipe corner
I was in Mesa recently and visited the Cornish Pasty Company with my niece. They had several vegetarian and a few vegan pasties on the menu and my vegan 'southwestern' was delicious. I've never made them before, but a reasonable way to start experimenting is to use puff pastries and fill them with savory fillings. Traditionally these are meat and potatoes fare, but I'm having luck with mixtures of carrots, broccoli, corn, sweet potato some coconut milk and spices. Lots of ways to go. and the pre-made wrappers make them look professional. Sort of 400°F to get the Maillard reaction going and 20 to 30 minutes depending on how thick they are.
Experiment away!
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