Once a year I read BP's Energy Outlook. They have a record of serious greenwashing, so anything from them (or the other fossil fuel companies) requires a bit of skepticism, but this year's report took a turn from the normal path. They suggest global oil demand peaked in 2019. There have been any number of 'peak oil' predictions, but most refer to extractable supply - a bit more on that later. While the BP predictions are more scenarios than rigorous predictions, it's significant that a large oil company believes oil demand is, and will continue to, drop.
BP outlines three scenarios: Accelerated, Net Zero and New Momentum. I'm guessing they'd prefer the New Momentum scenario, and will probably lobby and use other tactics to move in that direction, but the bottom line is they see less oil coming from the ground.
I think they're transportation modeling is too conservative. Electrification will probably take place much more rapidly than predicted. Granted there's a lot of inertia in fleet replacement given how long cars last, but the assumptions strike me as too slow. They don't seem to be taking into account the likely unbundling of transportation. Horace Dediu has been a big proponent of unbundling and points out most trips are local and short. [side note: you really need to follow Horace as well as well as David Levinson if you have any interest in the future of ground transportation] It makes no economic or environment sense to use a two ton car, gas or electric, to make a three mile trip. While much of North America has saddled itself with legacy transportation infrastructure and little imagination of what is possible, change is coming to Europe and it seems likely the developing world will favor very inexpensive electric micromobility solutions.
Back to peak oil. M. King Hubbert was a geophysicist with the Shell Oil Company in the 50s when he started looking at long term oil production predictions. All tended to make use of variables that weren't well pinned down. Hubbert's model was simple assuming once a discovery was made, production would increase exponentially as more resources and efficiencies are brought in. At some point a peak is reached and an exponential decline begins. The model can apply to any region, or groups of regions, assuming all of the discoveries are taken into account. It also assumes the impact of new technologies occurs at a constant rate.
On the extraction side the so-called Hubbert curve has accurately modeled many oil fields and regions - notably the US through about 2005.1 When dramatic new technologies appear - like practical fracking, shale and tar sands production, and computer guided drilling - you effectively add new sources. It's an interesting resource mining curve that's been used in many areas outside of oil production. Hopefully we'll move to a point where most extractable oil is left in the ground and oil exploration becomes a thing of the past.
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1 It may look like a Gaussian or Bell curve, but it doesn't die off as quickly. It takes the form
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