tingilinde

commuter bikes on npr

npr on commuter bikes ... very spiffy A.N.T bikes mentioned

green flying

We are decades from airplanes fueled by liquid hydrogen that is extracted by clean energy sources. A recent New Scientist had an overview piece on the problem of what to do in the meantime - it is behind their paywall, but appears here.

Dealing with ground based transportation is much easier -

ebikes

Salon has a piece on electric bikes. It notes they are getting popular in some parts of the world - ebikes outnumber cars in China for example.

If you are interested in something like this, it makes sense to look around. Many of the Chinese imports are very heavy making using them in a human-only powered mode something of a struggle. The battery technology on many of these is primitive, although this should change quickly over the next few years.

A good bet is to visit a cycle shop that sells more than one brand. Some try to be mopeds, while others aim to be bike/human hybrids. At this point the later probably makes more sense for most people if you are on a budget and are looking for a bit of exercise along the way. Last Fall I stumbled onto a dealership in Laguna Beach. A nice selection and a knowledgeable staff - people in Southern California might want to take a look.

There are a number of blogs, webpages and dealer sites, but check out the atob buyer's guide. If you are really interested, it may be best to subscribe to get at the back issue reviews

I know three people who have converted their current bike with a kit. The Canadian BionX unit appears to be the preferred choice.

But for the moment we have a situation where there are few dealers in the US and models that are either designed for the Chinese market or from very small manufacturers. This will undoubtedly change as this sort of a hybrid may be the best answer for people looking to ditch one of their cars.

spiffy bike

An elegant young friend zips around Denmark on her Sögreni. Extremely classy and spendy by bike standards, but dirt cheap compared to the yearly cost of almost any car. She loves riding - here is a guest post of hers on another friend's blog.

Perhaps nice bikes can be affordable luxuries. Get rid of one of your cars and get almost anything you want as a reward. It would make an interesting trend and bikes can be as mechanically sexy as cars. Unlike cars, they can make their riders physically sexier.

don't touch american values

I heard a news report that American auto manufacturers are upset with the proposed fuel efficiency requirements that demand a combined 31.7mpg fleet average by 2015. Their trade associations imply that it is an American value to be able to tow your jet ski

perhaps

My guess is if they don't beat that number by some margin they won't have any customers. One suspects those who really want a large/fuel hungry truck will have an excellent selection of heavily depreciated used trucks .

cars + 25, a view from mit

Greg notes an assessment of light vehicle technology from MIT. (pdf)

I have only been into it for an hour and need to get back to work, but it looks very good.

ON THE ROAD IN 2035: REDUCING TRANSPORTATION'S PETROLEUM CONSUMPTION AND GHG EMISSIONS

Anup Bandivadekar, Kristian Bodek, Lynette Cheah, Christopher Evans, Tiffany Groode, John Heywood, Emmanuel Kasseris, Matthew Kromer, Malcolm Weiss

MIT Laboratory for Energy and the Environment, Cambridge, Massachusetts

Report No. LFEE 2008-05 RP

July 2008

abstract:

This report summarizes the results of a research program that assessed the technology of light-duty vehicles and fuels that could be developed and commercialized during the next 25 years. The research was done at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology from mid-2005 to mid-2008. Our objective was to assess and compare options for reducing fuel consumption, especially fuels from petroleum and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, during the production and use of both fuels and vehicles.

This is a successor to our 2000 report, “On the Road in 2020”, which addressed similar objectives. Since that report was written, the world has moved on with new vehicle and fuel technologies, and with inexorably increasing worldwide demand for all transportation services. That demand lends more urgency to curbing the growth of consumption of petroleum fuel and of GHG emissions.

Our research for the current report was confined to industrialized countries, with an emphasis on the United States but also including some western European countries. We first assessed the application of new vehicle and fuel technologies to the performance, cost, and lifecycle emissions of individual vehicles. We then considered the effects on the total on-the-road fleet of introducing those technologies using plausible assumptions about how rapidly they could be developed, manufactured, and sold to buyers to replace existing vehicles and fuels or to add to the total fleet.

We have concluded that a 30–50% reduction in fuel consumption is feasible over the next 30 years. In the short-term, this will come as a result of improved gasoline and diesel engines and transmissions, gasoline hybrids, and reductions in vehicle weight and drag. If these improvements are achieved, we estimate a $1,500–$4,500 increase in vehicle costs. Over the longer term, plug-in hybrids and later still, hydrogen fuel cells may enter the fleet in numbers sufficient to have significant an impact on fuel use and emissions.

Alternative fuels that replace petroleum fuels are unlikely to change GHG emissions significantly. The major near-term alternatives are based on fossil raw materials like the Canadian oil sands or coal, which increase GHG emissions. Some biofuels may prove beneficial, depending on the particular biomass feedstock and conversion technology. But the U.S. emphasis on corn-based ethanol is not obviously justifiable. It has high economic costs, questionable GHG advantages, and other unfavorable environmental impacts.

No single technology development or alternative fuel can solve the problems of growing transportation fuel use and GHG emissions. Progress must come from a comprehensive, coordinated effort to develop and market more efficient vehicles and benign fuels, and to find more sustainable ways to satisfy transportation demands.

Detailed discussions of our research conclusions and policy prescriptions can be found in the Executive Summary (pp. ES-2 to ES-11) and in Section 8 of the report (pp. 155-160).

two thousand dollar commuter bike

The other week I saw a Civia bike - a very nice looking commuter bike - and made a note on the phone to look it up. Finally I remembered the note. It turns out that it is made in Minnesota (Dave, Karrie?) and seems to have a good reputation. The price is interesting. For a long time people have said that commuter bikes have to be under $500. This argument is probably about the same as saying commuter cars need to be under $15,000. If you get rid of a family car, you can probably pick up a pair of these and see a payback in less than a year.

Hmmm - I wonder if they could fit Colleen? Probably not, that 40 inch inseam of hers is more than a few sigma out. Now if a commuter bike brand wanted to show off their line - this is the right person.

bike commuting tips

Someone asked for resources ... Paul Dorn's notes are very good as is his blog

replace that suv with a sub

Several people commented on the bike trailer note pointing out that Xtracycle is a brilliant solution for hauling stuff.

Some people get one just for hauling things and others commute. There are some passionate users out there.

It is great seeing serious bikes popping up in the US. We may be behind Europe, but there are some passionate companies out there!

dot-X: a social X prize

The motivation for X Prizes is to motivate people to solve grand challenges and competitions. The idea has its roots in the Longitude Prize which was looking for a practical method for determining a ship's longitude. John Harrison won and the world changed.

Most of the X Prizes are technical and the basic model focuses on the technical - DARPA's grand challenge for example..

Last year I was giving a talk focused on energy and its coupling to global warming. Part of the talk was on low hanging fruit - the easy things we can do. Some are technical, but many are things people can choose to do. You can properly inflate your tires, choose to accelerate slowly, combine your trips, car pool, choose energy efficient appliances ... the list goes on and on.

For short trips you can use a bike.

I was in the Q and A session of the talk at Disney Animation and someone noted he commuted by bicycle, but had to modify his schedule to deal with traffic. What a shame. The human-bike combination incredibly efficient - imagine getting 1000 miles per gallon. A huge percentage of trips are short - on the order of a few miles. Cities like Copenhagen see something like 40 percent of trips involving a bike. But an analysis of why people don't use bikes points out a huge number of issues. Some are social, some involve a bit of road engineering and others point to new business opportunities.

This was buzzing around in my head as I left the talk and kept bugging me for a few days. Soon afterwards I described something I called the dot-X Prize to a friend who works with foundations.

Basically it is this:

Every community has unique issues and has a core group of enthusiasts who are passionately interested in human powered transit. A good deal of work has been done on road engineering and bike safety (a dated, but useful reference is here, current federal programs are described here). Create a central repository for that work and challenge these groups to raise their communities percentage of bike trips from the US average of 0.4 percent to one tenth the Copenhagen average - four percent. Grants would be given to the best proposals for implementation. This seed money would start projects across the country with everything being measured and published and questions would be answered.

• How do communities get funding for bike paths?

• What types of paths are safe and appropriate?

• How do you encourage people to move some portion of their travel to bikes?

• Where are rental schemes important?

• How do businesses participate?

• How do you get kids excited?

• etc...

All of these are social issues and may need to be tailored to fit local needs. One can imagine working out better human-electric hybrid bikes (this scheme is very good, btw), but people need to be riding bikes first.

Throwing money at the problem won't work. A billion dollars for bike paths would go a long way (current paths cost $10,000 to $30,000 a mile) and would be cheap if people used the bikes. Obama has mentioned the need for path funding. But first we need to know how to do it. Portland and Sacramento have done great work but may not work in all areas. And how do you motivate people?

I've been working on this a bit in my spare time - mostly collecting information and making connections. Colleen has been working on motivating kids. The motivation aspect is key. How do you make this attractive and, to young people, even sexy? Comments and suggestions are welcome.

making bikes more practical

Sara commutes on her bike and has been using a BOBgear trailer for the past two months with great results. It only gets used when she has to haul stuff, but says it has dramatically changed what she can do. No more waiting around and begging for car rides.

She notes this is one of the lightest models and most cost between $200 and $400.

pushing a car centric lifestyle

Some people have large vehicles and long commutes. A few are moving to sleeping in their vehicles (a SUV or truck has lots of room for sleeping) for portions of the week. If you have a 60 mile plus commute each way there aren't many alternatives other than to cut the number of commutes.

I was just exchanging email with someone in the Bay Area who is 72 miles from his job. He drives a Ford Expedition and his wife has a sub compact. Their strategy was to have him get a four day work week and only 144 miles commuting per week in the SUV. It gets parked next to a co-worker's house he gets electricity. A few all-night stores are within walking distance and his office is a two mile bike ride and has showers. He reports "more people than you would think" are doing this sort of thing and notes some people have traded to roomier SUVs that are a bit more comfortable. The prices have fallen so much that - "why not?"

A new meaning to the phrase "mobile home"

getting around without oil

I read Gore's speech last night and am very disappointed. He seems to have jumped the shark. What he suggests is not going to happen in a decade and may have the counterproductive effect of destroying the credibility of more reasonable projects. Gore is someone who falls for technological fixes rather than more balanced approaches.

The most reasonable short term fixes involve conservation. A few simple and available technologies combined with good choices can make a dramatic impact without changing lifestyle. You do have to tune them for your location and situation.

Sukie is interested in expanding her zero gasoline range and our township (thanks to a lot of work by her) has a series of bike and walking paths. The best way to do this is a bike and she needs something that is stable when carrying a load. Trek makes two models of adult trikes that look reasonable and she will be road testing one soon - so more to follow.

By combining trips and walking to local stores we've cut our gasoline use by over 40% in the past few years. This will push that number up a bit higher and will make the process easier. A huge benefit is that it combines errands with exercise.

A tip of the hat to Dave K for suggestions

a classic ride

The Pashley Guv'nor is a revival of the path racer design from the 1930s. If you live in a flat area (they will fit a three speed hub), this may be just the ticket ...

making sausage

A piece in Fortune on the backstory at Tesla.

The company picked the right market - people with a lot of money who are willing to put up with some issues with their toys - but it will be a huge jump for them to go to the next step even if the Roadster succeeds. I hope it does, but the level of innovation and depth is much less than than something like GM's Volt project.

But even if Tesla fails, it may have changed the perception of what an electric car can be.

double nickels

If we are really concerned about saving money on oil, conservation is the only short term path. There are many tactics that drop miles driven and we have seen two and three percent drops in recent months (year to year).

But enforcing an efficient speed limit is something that is viewed as political suicide. Senator Warner has called for looking at the idea of a 55 mph national speed limit, but he is only calling for studies and no one is joining him.

There have been a few studies on the effectiveness of the 55 mph speed limit when it was Federal law (one is here). Most of the studies show 2,000 to 4,000 fewer deaths per year and a 2% drop in oil consumption. They also note that compliance was only about 25% to 30%.

Finding the optimal mileage range of a car is tricky as there are a variety of components. Some have no velocity dependence (running your A/C and electricals) and others that increase linearly, as the square and as the cube of velocity. Above 40 mph, wind resistance begins to dominate. The power to overcome it goes as the cube of velocity. The shape of a car influences its coefficient of drag (called the Cd) and some vehicles are much "slipperier" than others. A gas or diesel engine has a fairly narrow power range and a transmission is used to match this efficient range with the speed of the car. How well a car is geared and shifted moves the sweet spot for best economy. Most manufacturers, worried about CAFE fines, optimize for 50-55 mph. It is possible to move a bit higher - 60 or even 65, but that demands a low Cd and the mileage will not be as good as if the manufacturer had re-geared the car (not only Ferrari, but some high end German makes are famous for optimizing a bit on the high side - they could improve their fuel scores significantly by re-gearing).

In the past few weeks I've exchanged mail with an engineer who design cars for a living (a German company). His view is that you can't fool physics. With drag coefficients that we see on normal cars an enforced 55 mph speed limit would drop fuel consumption dramatically over what we see on highways today. He said people talk about 6 to 9 percent in the US with the current speed and vehicle mix (this may be very consistent with the observations of the old speed limit). If there was an enforced national speed limit, you would probably also see manufacturers re-gearing their offerings.

Of course people wouldn't get to where they are going as quickly and there may or may not be economic impacts from this, but if you want to save oil a strictly enforced national speed limit is probably the quickest path. A few people (say those with high end touring cars) will see worse mileage, but the vast majority will see an improvement.

I doubt it will happen.

One thing you can do is clean up you vehicle. Things that protrude can dramatically increase the Cd of your car. Roof racks are bad, a closed tailgate on an open-bed pickup can cost a few mpg at 60 mph. Even the rough surface on a dirty car can make a difference (this is why you wash airplanes - it is very cost effective).

What I don't recommend is driving 55 when the traffic is flowing at 70 - difference in speed can be a dangerous thing.

hybrid ferraris

Ferrari has suggested they will build hybrids and a correspondent noted this is a sign of the final acceptance by the motor industry that we are moving towards electrics - at least for part of the driving cycle.

This is probably unlikely. Formula One racing is requiring the addition of kinetic energy recovery systems on cars during the 09 season. Basically small flywheels coupled to a CVT that can provide about 60 kilowatts for about 5 seconds .. think of it as recovering energy from braking to the flywheel allowing you to use about 80 extra horsepower when you need it. A bit different from the Prius style hybrid or PHEV...

The little flywheels are neat -- Flybrid makes them. The energy density of a best of class flywheel is about twice that of a lithium ion battery.

moving to 1990

A useful thesis on transportation technology and policy by Nicholas Lutsey of UC Davis. Lots of useful background and resources for anyone interested in greenhouse gases and transportation.

ABSTRACT

Governments worldwide and in the U.S. are enacting a variety of measures to mitigate
greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) from various economic sectors. Tools to prioritize these
measures are generally lacking in analytical rigor. On the other hand, the research literature
continues to proliferate with assessments of energy efficiency and GHG mitigation options
that can be adapted to the policy evaluation process. This dissertation formulates an
analytical method to better prioritize future climate change policy actions.

A framework is developed to integrate current research on climate change mitigation
technology alternatives from all sectors of the U.S. economy on an equal footing. Applying
consistent economic assumptions, a multi-benefit cost-effectiveness accounting tool is
developed that simultaneously evaluates the technology costs, lifetime energy saving
benefits, and GHG reductions in a single cost-per-tonne-reduced metric. The framework
synthesizes the disparate studies’ data to compare and prioritize options across sectors as
well as determine the aggregate impacts from multiple sectors’ GHG mitigation actions.
A broad portfolio of cost-effective technologies is available from each major sector of the
economy. The findings indicate that there are many net-beneficial “no regrets” climate
change mitigation technologies – where the energy savings of the technologies outweigh the
initial costs – and most of these technologies are not being widely adopted. Transportation
technologies are found to represent approximately half of the “no regrets” mitigation
opportunities and about one-fifth of the least-cost GHG mitigation measures to achieve the
benchmark 1990 GHG level. With the adoption of known near-term technologies, GHG
emissions by 2030 could be reduced by 14% with net-zero-cost technologies, and emissions
could be reduced by about 30% with technologies that each have net costs less than $30 per
tonne of carbon dioxide equivalent reduced.

Exercises like these are rarely predictive, but they are necessary for crafting policy. Like it or not, policy has enormous impact.

The 1990 benchmark is, in my mind, an intermediate goal. Tough, but something along the way.

green lighting the vw one liter

Over the years I've mentioned VWs hyper efficient car. The VW one liter has apparently been given a production go-ahead.

Only 1000 units a year, spendy, and not practical for all types of driving, but wow!

bike trailers and human grocery hauling

For those who are really serious about minimizing car use ... bike trailers (via treehugger)

Any sort of hill might kill a normal person, but for flat areas and/or electric assisted bikes (human/electric hybrids:-), this sort of thing may be just the ticket.

___

Four dollar gasoline hasn't made a huge change in human powered store trips around here. We live in a densely populated community that has about 1000 families within two miles of a food store. One sees very little human powered shopping. Over the weekend I saw a few people trying - clearly out of shape and not knowing how to pack groceries. People tend to give Sukie strange looks when they see her with her $50 pushcart that allows her to move large amounts of groceries easily.

electric vikings

A most or less practical electric car from Norway. Note the batteries are leased separately - probably essential in any pure electric vehicle under $30k for the next five or ten years.

For most people a plugin hybrid electric is going to be more "practical", but this is very neat.

mpg is a dumb measure

We've noted this before, but gallons per mile (or liters per kilometer) makes much more sense if you are worried about how much you will spend and pollute.

Recently someone mentioned trading in their nearly 30 mpg subcompact for a Prius when they still have a SUV for "hauling the kids around". Focusing on the more hungry vehicle makes more sense.

Miles Per Gallon	Gallons Consumed per 100 Miles Driven	Gallons Consumed per 10,000 Miles Driven
10	10.00	1,000
15	6.67	667
20	5.00	500
25	4.00	400
30	3.33	333
35	2.86	286
40	2.50	250
45	2.22	222
50	2.00	200
100	1.00	100
infinite	0.00	0

In the extreme case trading a 10 mpg car for one that gets 20 saves 5 gallons per 100 miles, while going from 20 mpg to an infinite number of mpg saves the same.

Getting the inefficient stuff off the roads makes a lot of sense Buying and crushing like Los Angeles did with high pollution cars may be a good strategy. Crushing is important as trading has the vehicle going to another driver where it is still polluting -- and perhaps more if the new buyer drives a lot.

charged up at gm

A nice article on the GM Volt project via The Atlantic

Probably the hardest thing the company has done. It will be breathtaking if they pull it off. The best batteries are probably a bit under 0.25 MJ/kg. Gasoline is 46.9 MJ/kg ... it gives a sense of scale.

have you driven a ford lately?

One wonders if that statement will be possible five years from now.

Ford's Mark Fields, speaking at a the Plug-In Electric Vehicles 2008 conference, calls for government welfare for the car companies and environmental laws that are favorable to the same group. This is a company that did almost nothing for a decade other than turn basic pickup designs into SUVs with enormous profit margins.

Plug-in hybrids are a step in the right direction, but 4000 pound plus monsters are not going to offer the advantages many dream about. That pesky thing called physics gets in the way. The fact that gasoline has about 47 megajoules per kilogram and the best lithium-ion batteries are below 0.3 gives a sense of scale.

GM has a serious lead on Ford. There have been some government Li-ion battery programs, but they are spending serious money on the Volt as well as downsizing their fleet.

We really need to be thinking about what it takes to make safe vehicles that weigh less than 2000 pounds and figure out ways to cut the need for getting in a car in the first place.

another city trike

The last year has seen quite a bit of competition in the sub $2000 recumbent trike domain with at least three intended for utility work around town. Catrike is well regarded and now has a model aimed at this niche for less than the price of 400 gallons of gasoline.

There are many reports of greatly increased bike sales and I even saw someone loading groceries onto a bike trailer the other day (but this is still rare)

commute times and gas prices

Does driving in LA become easy if gas goes to $10 a gallon? It appears to be slightly better now.

and data for those who are curious about heavy California traffic

double nickels

I've been involved in a few discussions about moving the speed limit back to 55 mph - or at least having people drive at that speed on freeways if they want to conserve. A correspondent noted a semi-recent article in the SF Gate.

There are many factors involved in the mileage a car gets. Some of them are have no linkage to speed, some have a linear dependance, some vary with the square and some the third power. The power required to overcome wind resistance goes roughly as the third power of the air speed once you are at highway speeds (a headwind can destroy your mileage) and, when you are at very high speeds, can dominate the power needed.

Gas and diesel engines have relatively narrow regions where they are efficient and transmissions are required to give cars and trucks a reasonably wide speed range as well as to to use fuel more efficiently. A well-shifted six speed transmission will get better mileage than a well shifted four speed. But most cars are designed to have optimal efficiency in the 45 to 60 mph range.

So with those caveats some general statements can be made. The vast majority of cars will get better mileage at 55 mph than 75 mph. Most will do better at 55 than 60. If you are looking at the fleet of cars, lowering the speed limit to 55 makes sense. Of course you get into arguments about the effective use of time and proper traffic flow, but the bottom line is less oil is burned across the fleet. The Union of Concerned Scientists study is reasonably robust and a twenty to thirty percent difference between 75 mph and 55 mph is consistent with many other studies.

Perhaps the psychologically motivating way of looking at this is to consider the accelerator a device that changes the price of gas. If you have four dollar a gallon gas in your tank at 55 mph, increasing your speed to 75 is the equivalent of paying five dollars or more a gallon.

At the same time it has been argued that dropping town speed limits from 35 or 40 mph to 25 to make bicycles and microvehicles more practical will burn more gas. This is probably true, but the distances are shorter and the amount of gas burned at these speeds is less. For people who use hybrids, electrics or human power, the rewards are great. But another area where there will probably not be any progress any time soon.

But I doubt there will be any serious change in the near future - there is no political will and, while people bitch about fuel prices, oil company profits, and the shift of national treasure to other countries, there is little will to do anything about personal saving.

a sensible electric assist bike from germany

Fanz points to this review of the Kalkhoff Agattu and a distributer in the UK (with many other electric bikes)

At about fifty pounds it is on the heavy side for a commuting bike, but the electric feature should give you something where you can balance exercise and not getting too sweaty for work if your commute has hills. The 250 watt motor looks like a good balance. The price is even reasonable for this sort of transportation, but no indication of US distribution

What is the baseline price of oil and d(price of oil)/dt that will encourage this sort of thing in the US?

suv bike

Looking for something that might really replace the car for local errands? Mostly bike-like without going to a pure cargo bike.

Pedaling gets easier as gas prices get higher.

electro-bike conversion kit

Turn your bike into something with electric assist and back to a normal bike in about a minute. These guys are evaluating the market.

I suspect high gas prices will generate a stream of designs (this one looks interesting), but we'll be lucky to get much above the current 0.4 percent bike commuting rate in the US for trips under 5 miles.

good automotive battery information

Axsen, Jonn, Andrew F. Burke, Kenneth S. Kurani (2008) Batteries for Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs): Goals and the State of Technology circa 2008. Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Davis, Research Report UCD-ITS-RR-08-14 (pdf)

Abstract

This report discusses the development of advanced batteries for plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) applications. We discuss the basic design concepts of PHEVs, compare three sets of influential technical goals, and explain the inherent trade-offs in PHEV battery design. We then discuss the current state of several battery chemistries, including nickel-metal hydride (NiMH) and lithium-ion (Li-Ion), comparing their abilities to meet PHEV goals, and potential trajectories for further improvement. Four important conclusions are highlighted. First, PHEV battery “goals” vary according to differing assumptions of PHEV design, performance, use patterns and consumer demand. Second, battery development is constrained by inherent tradeoffs among five main battery attributes: power, energy, longevity, safety and cost. Third, Li-Ion battery designs are better suited to meet the demands of more aggressive PHEV goals than the NiMH batteries currently used for HEVs. Fourth, the flexible nature of Li-Ion technology, as well as concerns over safety, has prompted several alternate paths of continued technological development. Due to the differences among these development paths, the attributes of one type of Li-Ion battery cannot necessarily be generalized to other types. This paper is not intended to be a definitive analysis of technologies; instead, it is more of a primer for battery non-experts, providing the perspective and tools to help understand and critically review research on PHEV batteries.

A very nice piece for those of us who are not battery chemistry experts to get up to speed in current developments. Batteries are far from optimal and this is a great place to start if you want to sort out current progress.

when smart isn't

A test of the Smart Fourtwo in the LA Times.

and another from the NY Times

Small, cute, poor handling, bad transmission and terrible mileage for something this size.

Properly designed, there is no reason vehicles of this size shouldn't exceed sixty miles per gallon and electric or plug in hybrid versions could do much better. There is a niche for small commuter cars that mostly stay away from major highways - but first we need good designs.

two wheeled ev use in china

We've all heard about the explosion of car use in China and worry about its long term implications, but cars are still beyond the means of most citizens. It turns out bicycles and gas or electric motorbikes are still common.

The growth of the two wheeled electric segment is particularly impressive. A new study(1.7 MB pdf) by Weinert, Jonathan X., Joan M. Ogden, Daniel Sperling, Andrew F. Burke from UC Davis takes a fairly deep look.

There is a good chance for quite a bit of growth. Modularity applies and sophisticated (lithium ion) battery development would have a positive impact. Finding cleaner sources of electricity would be good, but even with China's heavy use of coal (1 kg CO₂/kWh_china vs. 0.58 g/kWh_us), the efficiency of a small electric bike buys quite a bit over most four wheel vehicles.

Of course a vibrant market of several tens of millions of advanced two wheel electrics would put a huge downward pressure on prices - perhaps enough to make them attractive in "advanced" regions like the US.

but new jersey isn't denmark

It is very important to encourage car dependancy and thinking about the last century I guess. And it isn't just this school - "no bike" policies are increasingly common in suburbia.

Many studies indicate kids are terrible drivers, so providing parking places for kids with cars and none for bikes is a bit daft. If the road is an issue, perhaps it makes sense to recognize kids are important and reduce the speed limit to 20 or 25 mph (something that probably makes sense in all towns to encourage bike use). Maybe the students will learn a bit about activism.

and there are other things to consider...

(thanks for the link Greg)

cutting car use

Gas prices are replacing weather and politics as a topic of conversation. It is relatively easy to do something about it at a personal level. Changing your driving style and combining trips should be low hanging fruit for most people, but most balk at resorting to human power for short trips.

We live in a dense (condominium) community that is very close to a large shopping center. Sidewalks are available, but one rarely sees residents carrying groceries by hand, cart or bicycle (there are a few eccentrics such as us who do). Another shopping center is about four miles away and connected by sidewalks and a bike path.

Getting a sensible commuter bike makes a lot of sense if you have places to go that are within five to ten miles. For people who worry about their physical shape, or who have hills to contend with, there are human-electric hybrids. Electric Cyclery in Laguna Beach is a good example (I visited them last Fall - the staff was knowledgeable). The BionX hybrid approach seems to be popular. There are a variety of kits and you can install yourself or have it done at any bike shop.

Some friends in Davis, California replaced their second car with two good commuter bikes. After a year they reported no real need for the second car - the loss of convenience was more than compensated by the thousands of dollars they had saved (car payments, maintenance, insurance, gas) and both of them have lost weight and are now in good physical shape. Nancy says she looks ten years younger (she is in her mid forties) and feels like she did in her twenties. Their total driving mileage is less than half of what it was when they had two cars. Of course your mileage may vary and few places in the US are as bike friendly as Davis.

cleaner and more efficient trucks?

I don't know anything about the American Trucking Association, but they have announced steps to make trucking more efficient. Some are surprising from an industry group (lowering speeds). Others are familiar - more combination trucks (which may be more dangerous).

Setting governors on new trucks to limit speeds to no more than 68 mph and reduce the national speed limit to 65 mph for all vehicles. A truck traveling at 75 mph consumes 27% more fuel than one going at 65 mph, according to the ATA. Bringing speed limits down to 65 mph would save 2.8 billion gallons of diesel fuel for trucks in a decade and reduce CO₂ emissions by 31.5 million tons—equal to a year’s CO₂ generated by 9 million Americans, or the total population of the State of Connecticut. Automobile consumption of gasoline would drop by 8.7 billion gallons, with an accompanying drop in CO₂ emissions of 84.7 million tons.

Reduce engine idling. The ATA recommends pursuing a federal solution that reduces non-discretionary idling—i.e., idling when stuck in traffic—through highway infrastructure improvements and reduces discretionary idling through incentives for new technology.

These types of idling annually consume an estimated 1.1 billion gallons of diesel fuel. Options currently available to fleets to minimize discretionary idling have the potential to reduce CO₂ emissions by an estimated 61.1 million tons over the next ten years—the equivalent of 16 million Americans not driving for a year.

Increase fuel efficiency by encouraging participation in the US EPA SmartWay Transport Partnership Program.

Reduce congestion by improving highways, if necessary by raising the fuels tax. The ATA has recommended a 20-year program, focused initially on fixing critical bottlenecks. Longer-range ideas include creating truck-only corridors which would permit carriers to further increase the use of more productive vehicles. If congestion in all 437 urban areas were eliminated, the reduction in truck CO₂ emissions would be 45.2 million tons over ten years—equal to the annual output of a population the size of the State of Colorado.

Use more productive truck combinations. Permitting truck combinations to be more productive will help reduce the number of trucks needed on the road. Research shows that increased volumes of freight can be moved with less fuel and fewer emissions by using a smaller number of large trucks rather than a larger number of small trucks. A reduction of 294.7 million tons of CO₂ could be achieved with these changes.

Support national fuel economy standards for trucks. The American Trucking Associations supports setting technologically feasible national fuel economy standards for medium- and heavy-duty trucks that reduce fuel consumption if they do not compromise the performance of the vehicles.

tire inflation

One surefire way to loose money is to have under-inflated tires. Twenty percent under-inflation is commonly seen and leads to premature tire failure, poor handling and excessive fuel usage. Tirerack claims 5% loss of fuel economy and 25% decrease in tread life at this level.

Over-inflation has problems too. Shorter tread life and loss of handling in some cases. The best route is to follow the instructions in your owner's manual or on the driver's doorjam.

But how to inflate - when the tires are warm or cold? What do you do about temperature differences in the day? Here are a few guidelines, but to first order checking tire pressure in the morning and adjusting pressure every two weeks or so is probably good enough. Many studies suggest you will see mileage improvements from three to five percent and having the tires last longer isn't a bad deal either.

driving for higher gas mileage

I suspect tips like these will become more common as the Summer approaches.

I'm not looking forward to lines of cars "drafting" on the freeways and some of the suggestions here don't mix well with heavy (eg. normal in many areas) traffic. Use your judgement!

shocking

The US Advanced Battery Consortium has awarded a three year contract to A123Systems to work out hybrid plug-in battery technology.

Very interesting specs. Forget about the reference vehicle and put this in the VW One Liter car - redone as an electric with a 10 kW motor and you start talking about a 200 mile range with a battery that is well under $4000. Figure out some carbon fabrication and you have a very spiffy electric commuter that can go 100 miles on well under $1 of utility electricity.

Two obstacles - building a light vehicle and convincing people to use one for some of their travel. The later task seems much more difficult, but person $10 or $12 a gallon gas would help.

selling the smart car

A cute interactive ad/feature for the Smart Car.

While this is a good size for many applications even in the US, the 40 mpg fuel consumption is disappointing considering its size. Not as good as a Prius and in a very different ballpark than the VW one liter car. And friend Colleen isn't going to fit with her 40 inch inseam.

It will be interesting to see if prices remain uncomfortably high long enough to force changes in transportation ... of course one can take really drastic measures.

like a person on a bike burning ben and jerry's

The secret to a very efficient vehicle is light weight. People on bikes are efficient for few reasons, but the fact the bike weighs much less than the driver is important.

Six years ago VW built a then state-of-the-art car that meets safety requirements, but gets nearly 300 mpg. It is light enough that you could probably build an impressive electric car on this platform or a plug-in hybrid with a much smaller engine (the current engine is 6.3 kW ... about 8.5 hp).

lots of details here

It is more practical than you might think. The most difficult part is the carbon fiber body, but that is much easier now than a few years ago. Back of the enveloping suggests a 15 to 20 kW electric motor would be in the weight range of the little diesel/transmission and a 10 kW-hr lithium ion battery would be practical weight and range-wise. The motor would mostly operate south of 5 kW, but would give good acceleration when required. Great things happen when you can make vehicles lighter. You may not want to use it everywhere, but remember $200 oil (or $7 a gallon gas) may not be that far off...

great stuff and the basis for a great commuter. Efficiency is similar to an ice cream fueled person on a bike. If we were really serious about energy, the environment and security we might seize on doing things that work rather than obsessing about $4 gas and tax holidays. But we aren't serious so I guess we can go shopping.

power required to move a car

The amount of fuel your car burns is related to the power required to move it. There are several components, but, at highway speeds air resistance dominates as it goes as the cube of the velocity. Just looking at air resistance, the power required to move a car at 75 mph is about 3.4 times greater than the same car moving at 50 mph.

There are terms that cover rolling resistance (which tend to have components that depend on velocity to the first and second power), terms for running generators, cooling fans, etc (tend to have a fixed idling component and a term that goes as the square of velocity), etc...

Drive trains are engineered to have "sweet spots" - regions where mileage is highest. On most cars this falls between 40 and 60 mph (there are some cars that get much better mileage at 60 mph than 40, but almost nothing you can buy will get better mileage at 65 mph)

For most people a highway speed of no more than sixty will save a considerable amount of gas. The problem is traffic is often much faster and driving outside of average highway speed can be dangerous ... But a national speed limit of 55 or 60 mph that is enforced would probably make a big difference in fuel consumption for highway driving.

Politicians are too timid to consider measures that might work. They can't even get to the point to make citizens believe there are problems that need to be tackled. grumble - I guess I should be patriotic today and go shopping.

pandering politicians

Now two presidential candidates are taking about a Summer suspension of the federal excise tax on gas - an amazingly stupid act aimed at pandering to voters.

Revenue from the gas tax is about a fifth what we spend on the Iraq War. It is used for road and bridge construction and maintenance - something that has fallen to dangerous levels in the last decade as costs go up, but revenues are relatively flat.

There should be a recognition that fuel prices are likely to rise. Bringing on new capacity is expensive and demand is exploding. The increases have been much larger than the gas tax (which amounts to about $10 a month for the average driver) and many feel they will increase.

Perhaps a better message would be to encourage easy alternatives. The federal excise tax on gasoline is 18.4 cents a gallon - about five percent of what a driver is paying for a gallon of regular at this point. By changing driving habits it is easy to get a five percent improvement in economy. Proper inflation of tires gives most people a two to three percent improvement. Cutting back speeds and avoiding heavy pressure on the accelerator and break pedals is a big thing. Consolidating trips to cut mileage as well as make sure the engine is warm ... the list goes on. I was able to cut gas use by about twenty percent without much difficulty.

The middenheap has a video with a few recommendations from Motorweek.(windows media file)

really small microcar gets reviewed

Top Gear checks out the Peel P50 - a tiny and somewhat silly car from the early 1960s that would be the worst thing imaginable for a friend and her forty inch inseam. Post WWII Europe was short on many things and there was considerable experimentation in this area, but a bike is much more practical than many of these designs and the world went in another direction.

The pollution from that two cycle moped engine must be awful, but there are companies talking about updated clean retro microcars. It makes one wonder if more "practical" microcars will be updated.

It is reasonable to think about the right form factor for various types of transport. Somehow 3500 pounds carrying a 130 pound driver and 20 pounds of groceries seems wrong. Assuming you have safe roads, bikes and assisted bikes are going to rule on short trips in mostly good weather, but a 1000 pound vehicle could get away with a modest load of modern (lithium-ion for example) batteries and might be the basis for a neat city vehicle. Maybe even one for someone with Colleen's legs.

saving energy and money by banning left turns

UPS minimizes left hand turns to save energy and minimize accidents

nova and the car of the future

The Car Talk guys on Nova .. watch here if you missed it. A very high level view, but it is a good background piece.

But remember that part of what you can do is drive less. Walk or bike when possible and you are doing better than the most sophisticated car concepts. Cut your driving by half and you are many years in the future - and healthier with the exercise.

Some resources including video clips to allow you to make your own version of the show.

what is a car in 2030?

Believe it or not it is nearly reasonable to think about what a car will be like in 2030 - certainly 2020.

Here is a synopsis of a new MIT based study that looks at emissions as a function of various power sources. The bottom line is getting serious greenhouse gas reductions - to the levels that most climatologists suggest is necessary - is somewhere between difficult and impossible with conventional form and driving cycles found in today's cars.

Work is being done on optimizing the electric/non-electric configuration, but moving to much lighter vehicles and driving them less is probably the winning path. We need to become more Danish rather than only trusting technology.

One of the worst paths is ethanol as currently produced. Of course this is a big political issue and all of the major presidential candidates are dramatically wrong. Steve notes a great posting by the "fake steve jobs" on the subject.

folding bikes

A very interesting looking prototype from Pacific Cycles. (video)

No information other than this video. It certainly breaks down easily.

bike commuting tips

A nice discussion of experiences trying to commute on a bike in the Bay Area.

Bikes are amazingly efficient devices. If you were drinking vegetable oil (not that different in energy density from gasoline and something your body can use), you could probably get over 1000 miles per gallon riding a bike. Shifting to a premium ice cream should give over 300 mpg. Using healthy foods lowers you mileage, but you have to keep your body running anyway and this improves your physical shape and probably your health.

pianowire and chewing gum

When I was a teenager a Japanese auto company imported something called the "Happy Talk" An amazingly bad car the four models remained on a local lot for over a year and, after being painted bright colors and having their price reduced 80%, finally disappeared. Consumer Reports tested the model and referred to its suspension as "piano-wire and chewing gum"...

And now Zap has a candidate for the worst western car - the Zap Xebra -- enjoy the review.

Things don't have to be completely awful to be green, but making a car is a difficult thing and converting a piece of junk doesn't do it. If you really want a reasonable electric car at a semi-reasonable price it is necessary to think about something with a weight much closer to 1000 than 3000 pounds.

And until then there are many other things you can do to reduce your carbon footprint.

notes on bike paths and roads

Hunting around for bike path information, I found this wikipedia article. Links to design and safety as well as a history. It is interesting to note that Nazi Germany made it a priority to discourage bike riding.

Decreasing the number of miles driven and substituting human powered travel where possible has many benefits, but is also tricky. There are existence proofs (notably the Netherlands and Denmark) that progress can be made and it seems like a reasonable goal in the US. I doubt we will see any movement until fuel prices really spike.

how clean are plugin hybrid vehicles?

Perhaps not as clean as you think. It depends on the source of electricity and scenarios where a plug in hybrid are dirtier than a conventional hybrid are easy to imagine.

A key is to generate electricity with the smallest amount of vented carbon dioxide. Unfortunately coal is very cheap and abundant in the US and coal fired plants last many decades. The best way to deal with this may be a stiff carbon tax to reflect the real cost of energy, but that seems unlikely given the current political climate.

In the meantime using smaller cars that burn less gas and reducing the miles you drive are good strategies.

moving beyond the concept that bikes are toys

Visit most cycling shops in the US and you will see two basic types of bikes. Mountain bikes with fancy suspensions and huge knobby tires and light weight racers with super thin tires and prices that often exceed $200 per pound.

beautiful perhaps, but toys if what you really need is practical transportation

Toys that are mostly useless for the rigors of daily commuting. Europe has perfected the concept of the commuter bike. Utilitarian, rugged and reliable - you can actually use one on a daily basis in most types of weather. Not a bad deal as a bike is one of the most efficient ways to move a human from place to place - much more efficient than walking.^* And bikes move more than just the rider.

Some of the lowest hanging fruit for reducing oil use may be to use human power wherever possible. It would be extremely inexpensive to create a good network of bicycle lanes. The right sort of bike exists, but there is little interest. One wonders if a spike of gas prices to $6 or $8 a gallon would do the trick. Seeing it move up slowly won't, but a quick spike might be useful for getting some good infrastructure installed.

The three major presidential candidates would view increased bike use as silly. After all, Americans are lazy and required large vehicles with at least a half dozen cup holders. Why have a vehicle that weighs a fifth as much as the rider rather than twenty times more? But these are not people who seriously worry about the environment - all three support coal to liquid fuel and corn based ethanol (based on their voting records).

For hilly areas or commutes where the rider's fitness level is not up to the journey it is possible to add a small motor. Here hybrid means electric/human power. This is usually an electric motor that can be switched on and off, but some have regenerative braking and the ability to change the battery by pedaling. Most have inefficient batteries, but modern technology is appearing. Schwinn came out with an interesting looking line recently - mostly practical city bikes with electric assist. Lithium batteries and a reasonably advanced motor, they appear to be good candidates on paper. The fly in the ointment may be reliability issues. A friend almost bought one, but other owners complained about reliability issues. If you are looking at one make sure there is a good warranty. But with gas over $3 a gallon such purchases will pay for themselves.

Most Americans will find a car necessary most of the time, but cutting back on local driving and using human power is not only good for the environment but is good for your health (assuming you can ride safely). People in the bicycling nations look fitter than their American counterparts. As Colleen says: I could ride my bike more often and develop some damn sexy legs ... that should be excuse enough for most people.

So if you are looking for a place to invest your $600 or $1200 check from the government in something that will improve your fitness, guard your health, reduce atmospheric carbon dioxide and reduce foreign energy dependence - here is a starting place.

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^*An interesting factoid is many