Many make the argument that current gas prices won't change behavior. The arguments are generally that people only respond to a fairly quick change and that people have no choice - they must drive.
I generally agree with these arguments. That said it is interesting to look at the real cost to a family budget. The average family drives about 22,000 miles a year. Much of this is short distance and stop and go driving where economy is much lower than what manufacturer claims.
So for 22,000 miles of driving and $3.00/gallon gas:
$6600 10 mpg
$3300 20 mpg
$2200 30 mpg
$1650 40 mpg
$1320 50 mpg
A surprising number of SUVs get around 10 mpg in average use.
Even for a family that makes $100k a year the lower mileage numbers are a significant hit. Combine this with heating bills that could be twice that of last year and you have political dynamite. People probably won't conserve, but they'll be furious.
For a very small segment of the population the rationalization to buy a nice human powered vehicle is much better. The same goes for those looking to move to human powered transportation friendly communities.
john mcphee - the coal train
John McPhee has the first of a new two installment piece in the October 3rd issue of The New Yorker.
I love his writing and recommend it to everyone.
The online site has a background piece.
15:44 in General Commentary | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)