omenti

blowing in the wind

While computational models have made big strides there is a large gap between model predictions and the real world.  If you are serious about how something interacts with the air moving by it you need access to a wind tunnel.  This gets interesting with athletics.  At the highest levels in cycling wind tunnels are used, but only sparingly as wind tunnel time is hard to come by.  It was interesting that one of the big three bicycle makes recently opened a private wind tunnel to sort out bicycle aerodynamics.  

 

I'd much rather see focus on the real issues of increasing bicycle commuting, but the fact is that much of the upscale market in the US is built on the bike as an expensive toy and exercise machine.  Competition in making racing bikes is fierce and I expect the other major makes - especially Trek - to build their own facilities in the near future.  

 

Of course I'm assuming they will have people who know how to properly design the experiments and analyze the information.  It makes me think about the current big data explosion.  Some will do great things, but getting there isn't easy and requires very careful design and the right people.  Just going out and hiring "data scientists" and "data vis" people won't work and may even be counterproductive.

 

Any time you are dealing with data (I would say information) analysis, it is important to know what it is, where it came from, how noisy it is, and possibly many other things.  You have to know about the manipulations and filters it passes through.  Are your questions   for the data set?  How biased is your analysis?

 

Look up at the night sky and constellations pop out.  Constellations are artificial and offer no physical meaning.  In fact they led to early counterproductive models of the cosmos and some people still attach meaning to them.

 

Humans are naturals at apophenia - we have evolved to easily find artificial patterns in information.  We find it in scientific, engineering, financial, weather and most other forms of data.  We can and do make serious mistakes.  Hunting for patterns in large data sets can be enormous fun, but it can be very misleading - as the Danes would say: there are owls in the marsh....  A deep tool and domain knowledge is essential.  Given how many misuse spreadsheets and simple statistics, I'm not universally optimistic. But others will be very good at avoiding the pitfalls.

 

There are ways to guard against mistakes.  Science is built on these procedures, but there are those who see big data as the shiny new thing.

 

I was interested in measuring how efficient a human could be on an average bike.  There are a lot of numbers, but they vary dramatically.  Using a numeric model and a digital wind tunnel we are talking about serious big data.  For fun one can get time in a low speed wind tunnel.  There is much more going on than in the digital model, but a bit of clever design means we are not recording that many numbers.  With some care we can understand what is going on throughout the experiment - something that isn't as easy with the digital model.

 

The opportunity presented itself and I was able to record a nice round number - From an earlier post a friend on a commuter style bike can exceed the equivalent of 1,000 miles per gallon.  a few details:

 

Looking at someone in good physical condition riding in an upright position with no external wind on a very non-aerodynamic bike.  At 22.5 kilometers per hour (14 mph) she needs about 80.6 kilojoules to cruise along for a kilometer.  This works out to about 31 nutritional calories per mile.  She is burning something like 434 calories over her basic needs to cycle for an hour.

It is interesting to calculate the power she is getting from the metabolism of her food at this steady pace.  In an hour she requires about 1814 kilojoules of energy, so dividing by the seconds in an hour we get a bit more than 500 watts. Not all this food energy is being converted into useful mechanical work.  It turns out many of the muscle movements we make have efficiencies around twenty percent.  Colleen happens to be a trained athlete with wonderfully smooth motions and is a bit over twenty percent efficient on a bike.  She is delivering about 100 watts of power to the pedals and most of that (about 95%) is making it to the rear tire.  

Imagine a car that gets 30 miles per gallon.  A bit of arithmetic shows 30 mpg of gasoline is about 2750 kilojoules per kilometer.  The car uses a bit more than 34 times the energy Colleen does to travel the same distance.  Of course she is only carrying around a bike and a car has to carry a lot of weight besides the driver.

She is close to 1025 miles per gallon - if  fueled by a gasoline near equivalent like a vegetable oil.  That doesn’t work for her so you can figure out what she gets on a gallon of Ben & Jerry’s if you like. 

 

There are a lot of ways to come to different numbers and not everyone has the access to a wind tunnel and the metabolic measurements that an Olympic program uses.  If the information is found it is necessary to know something about it.  There are a lot of specialized conditions that go into this little number.  One can ask many other interesting questions and learn even more, but I only show the rather flashy economy number.  

 

In the end just doing it was much more efficient that building a model and using computational fluid dynamics.  If I was asking a more isolated question - perhaps a design question - the model may have been the way to go.  A bit of experience goes a long way.

 

My worry is that many decisions come down to needing a simple and clearly stated result.  The culture of those who describe the information and those who act on it may be so different that the analysis is worthless or even dangerous.   Domain knowledge is critical.  Even Nate Silver gets silly when he is away from politics and sports.

 

You have to be careful and critical - doubt and curiosity are very important tools as is playfulness.  Science is lucky.  There is an absolute right that can be independently tested using multiple approaches.  Along the way there are many wrong descriptions, but over time they are stripped away and a clearer picture emerges

 

There isn't any magic in it.  Big data will be great for some organizations, and others will get results that lead them down mistaken paths (ask Mitt Romney).  How an organization builds this into their culture is critical.   It should also be stressed that some organizations that have a good understanding of their domain using conventional techniques may find this counterproductive.  Other companies may find it much more useful to continue to build more conventional techniques to understand their customers and operations - Trader Joe's comes to mind.

 

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Recipe corner

 

I've been seriously occupied for the past few weeks and did very little in the way of interesting cooking.  So here is a fundamental technique I use all the time - brazing and glazing vegetables.  It is very useful to master this one:-)

 

° Cut some firm vegetables (I love this with sweet potatoes, it doesn't work well with produce that isn't firm) into roughly equal sized pieces so they cook at similar rates.  Put them in a pan with a lid that fits well and is just big enough to hold them in a single layer.

° Add enough water to cover the bottom of the pan along with a little olive oil or butter.  Add any seasonings that need cooking - garlic or shallots for example.

° Place the pan over a medium heat, cover and stir every few minutes to see if the veggies are getting tender.  You can add a bit of water if needed.

° When they are getting tender, remove the cover and crank up the heat to high. Stir constantly and wait for the water to evaporate and the veggies to start to turn brown - this many only take a couple of minutes.

° Add whatever spices you need.  Salt, pepper, some chopped herbs etc.  It often helps to add just a bit of acid - a squeeze of a lemon or a tbl of vinegar.  

° serve

 

 

placetime

trees are the poems nature writes to the heavens

 

I need to find a suitable tree in the woods.  Sandy caused so much damage as did Irene and the pre-Halloween snowstorm.  Finding the right tree has not been easy this time.

 

but I'm getting ahead of myself...

 

When I was an undergrad I read Polya and decided to write down some steps on problem solving.  This is not meant to be specific to a field and it tries to be serious even though some of the steps may seem trivial.  It isn't a checklist - just a rough structure for approaching a problem.  I wrote these on a sheet and keep it above my desk.  

there are many techniques. Not every problem would have all of these steps and some would have new ones.  I've added a bit of annotation (in blue) to the original for clarity, but feel free to skip down.  The point is I wanted to impose some structure to make progress.

1. Understand the problem

 

- do you understand all of the words and equations in the problem?

- can you restate the problem in your own words?

- can you think of a picture or diagram to help understand the problem?

- what do you want to find or show?

- what level of accuracy do you need?

- is there enough information to find a solution?

- is the problem a relevant problem or is it gibberish?

- what is the scale of the problem?  can you do it in an hour or will it require unobtainium?

2. Devise a plan

 

- guess and check

- consider special cases.  what are the boundary conditions?

- select your tools

- do you fully understand your tools?

- draw a picture

- solve a simpler version first

- create a model

- use approximations - but understand their impact

- work backwards

- be ingenious …  this comes with experience and often with re-thinking the problem in a different context.  

This and the next step - connecting the dots are the non-trivial piece!!  Remember:

play and your ability to fail with grace are essential

curiosity is your driver - remember informed ignorance rules in science and math! never lose fact that your final job is to expand your ignorance - results are a by-product!!

- connect the dots - this is a subset of being ingenious

serendipity is another driver.  remember that serendipity is making discoveries by accident, but you must have enough sagacity to note what holds potential.  

dot connecting is best done using averted attention.  Don't tool constantly on your problem.  Focus hard, but pivot off to equally long period of something completely different. This may even fool others into thinking you have a life. 

3. Carry out your plan

 

- find a quiet place with no interruptions.  nature is your friend

- use some care and be a craftsman

- if you get stuck, take some time off and try to forget about what you are doing

- if you fail, use another approach

- know when you have failed

- if you are working with others know where the strengths are and divide appropriately

4. Check with reality

- does your answer make sense?

- can your solution make testable predications?

- ask an expert in your field to examine your work for flaws

- reflect on what you have done and examine what worked and what didn't

 

 

This approach helped with physics and math problems, but needed modifications for doing real science - something that I began to taste in grad school.  Observation and experiment have their own techniques and learning that answers may not be what you are looking for requires adjustment.¹

 

There are many places to jump from here.  Several have been mentioned in earlier posts, but I want to concentrate on how this fits with place and time.

 

Finding a bit of nature has been important for me - even in city environments.  As an undergrad I would spend time in the library listening to music for awhile and then going to "my rock" - a large rock just inside a small wooded area that no one seemed to walk through.  Being able to lay on my back and look up through the trees seemed to clear my mind and it was easy to tune out other noises.  

 

You can always build a simple tree platform or even a tree house.  These don't have to be elaborate, but they have the feature of purposefully removing you from some of the world.  Of course it is important to not have electricity and you need to leave your mobile phone behind, or at least turn it off.   

 

Working mostly out of my home these days I'm finding the woods to be an extremely important place and tool.  In addition to spending time working there I take a daily walk around lunch that allows one to mentally shift.  There is something constant, but always changing nature about the place that is worth a lot to me. 

 

I was lucky enough to have started in a lab at Bell Labs that strongly believed in some daily private time.  Even the phones went dead for incoming calls during the period.  You could chose to collaborate, but the choice was yours.  When I moved to other organizations that didn't have this policy I found myself coming in very early to get a few uninterrupted hours.  

 

The organization that first used the private time approach evolved a few curious practices that seemed to be organic extentions.  There were a variety of small collaboration areas outside the (private) offices.  If you wanted to collaborate and could find someone else agreeable (signaling was done with colored flags just outside your office door),  you would often meet in one of these areas - somehow that was better than either office.  They had nice chairs and a blackboard and were tucked into quiet out-of-the-way parts of the building.  Places for special collaboration times.

 

Intersection and collaboration with others is also critically important.  The old Bell Labs Murray Hill installation was something of a maze.  Throughout a career your office would move and would find yourself collaborating with people in other parts of the building.²   I don't believe in most forms of brain storming, but I've seen it work in some small and stable groups.  These groups were usually attached to place, time and often had some ritual.  One of my favorites was unscheduled, but usually took place late on Friday afternoons (three to seven pm was common), invovled a couch, a nice view of some trees, had three or four regular participants who were friends and was fueled by chocolate covered coffee beans.  

 

Collaborations can, of course, be remote.  There is a growing understanding of what works and doesn't.  Collaborations in place often fail and remote collaborations are sometimes fruitful.  It is important to understand for you and your organization what works and what doesn't and why.  Much of it comes down to personality and relationship strength, but corporate culture often has a role.

 

Working on some ideas and projects, one tends to run into walls.  Ideas and approached become stale and work slows to a crawl.  A good approach is to shift the primary focus to something else - something entirely different.  Sometimes a break to an extremely different activity or place is called for.  Somehow the mind seems to be considering the original problem and a flash of insight can come.  

 

Proper toolkits help a lot.  Perhaps it is the time I'm from, but a real slate blackboard and high quality chalk are important to me. Whiteboards don't cut it.  When AT&T Research moved to Florham Park, NJ after the AT&T/Lucent fission, the head of research recognized this and gave everyone a choice of board.  The same holds for paper and pencil for sketching - get something that feels wonderful when the pencil is in motion.   Sketching can be anything of the moment - sometimes visualization of the problem, sometimes working through equations and sometimes doodling or trying to focus and draw something.  The last is a form of meditation to me and a often a path to clearer thinking.  The paper has to feel good under a good sharp pencil.  Everyone will have something that is important to them - the point is figure out what it is and use it.  These are cheap paths that can encourage flow.

 

These are some of the tools I find useful - time from an earlier post and place and the interaction of time and place.  The point is you should find what placetimes and supports to them work for you.

 

Back to the beginning of the post.  Clearly the line is much more beautiful than anything I would pen.  Yesterday Om tweeted an Instagram post of his with a somewhat similar line by the poet Kahlil Gibran.  I've read quite a bit of his work. This one is famous and, while beautiful, breaks into sadness

 

Tree are poems the earth writes upon the sky

We fell them down and turn them into paper

That they may record our emptiness

Several years ago one of you had a similar line - the one at the beginning of this post - and I had to ask.  It turns out she had rewritten a someone similar line from a much older poem in her native language

 

God's fingers are the trees painting the sky

 

I realize poetry often doesn't translate, but consider Jheri's inspired variation much better and have been using it.  

 

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¹ I can't stress enough how important simple things like wiring are a well as trying to deal with all sources of error.  Play is even more important as is the ability to play with others who have different skill sets and views.  There is also a realization that hunting for the discovery - that rare eureka moment - is not what science is about, but rather finding new questions is much deeper.  But that is a core theme of this blog (hopefully)

² It is wonderful that cross disciplinary collaboration is "hot" again in some institutions.  I've never seen a place that supported it better than the old Bell Labs.

counting time

A gentle snow is falling in still air.  It is cold enough that the flakes are fairly small, but it has been satisfying watching with the lights out save a few candles from the small feast today.  Time to reflect a bit on time.

 

A decade ago I left a nice corporate position in a then-failing company and formed a partnership with three others.  The most significant thing I did was swear to myself that I would get outside every day for a walk of at least an hour.  Usually I'm working out of the home and these take place close to noon, but there are times when they've been in foreign places at 2am when scheduling is tight.  I think I've missed six in the past decade - all due to illness.

 

You learn a few things doing this.  One is that you can usually get around in nearly any weather - most days will present an hour.¹  Another is you soon learn to forget about music and other distractions so you can properly take in what is around you.  But the real epiphany was gaining an appreciation for the local flow of time.  

 

We are lucky enough to be in a property that borders 12 square kilometers of swampy land that is unsuitable for development.  Much of it is forested with a few small meadows lurking inside and a few streams added to make navigation a bit challenging after a storm.  A fine place for a treehouse as well as following some of the deer paths.

 

I won't bore  you with the details of what I see and I'm quite incapable of writing well enough, but you do notice change.  During the Spring there is sometimes dramatic change in an hour's time, but much of it is more subtle.  After about three years this flow of time became engrained in me - sort of like the night sky became a part of my neighborhood when I was a kid.  After about five or six years I began to notice the differences on a scale larger than the yearly cycle and that is still a process.  

 

It seems right to try and understand some of these out of curiosity.  I'm a believer that a deeper understanding only adds to the beauty of nature.  I spend a bit of time trying to understand what drives the local sugar maples, the local Little Brown Bat population as well as tracking a half dozen species of fireflies in the Summer.²

 

Today's walk went into a "civilized" part of the woods that I hadn't visited in the past month.  A local walking club marked a trail, but it tends to overgrowth as few people use it.  This year the township decided to "pave" it with the ground up bits of trees that fell during Sandy and there was a formal path that was almost three kilometers long.

 

All of this has made me more aware of where the Earth is in its orbit - I tend to mark the solstices and equinoxes, the aphelion and perihelion, the earliest and latest sunrises and sunsets and a few meteor showers.  

 

These are markings on a timepiece that we are embedded in should we chose to read it.  It changes over time, but generally on a scale that is too slow for us to notice.  

 

These markings and the flow between them has given me an appreciation for time on a scale that is a bit longer than the seconds, minutes and hours we are generally aware of. Nature offers so much more than we can perceive. 

 

Today is Imbolc and we mark it with a small feast.  It is a cross quarter day - one of the four halfway points that divide the seasons.  They were very important in Northern Europe and holidays like Groundhog's Day, May Day and Halloween are tied to them.

 

Imbolc is usually associated with Ireland, Scotland, England and Wales.  It marks the lengthening of available light and the point where many animals become pregnant (it is currently a very busy time out in the woods even here).

 

Here is part of a note I sent to one of you on the holiday last year..

 

It turns out groundhog's day is a cross quarter day - specifically Imbolc (spelling depending on which tradition you are using).  The cross quarter days mark the halfway points between the seasons and many cultures use them.  I like them because they tend to represent the season you are currently in rather than the starting point.

My grandmother was Irish and celebrated Lá Fhéile Bríde, which is the feast day of St Brigid in Irish.³  It is roughly the time you would see the earliest beginnings of Spring in Ireland - namely the ewes would be getting ready to have lambs.  The holiday was a big thing with her and had candles, rich foods and a huge family dinner.  The ashes of the fire were sorted through to make predictions and she said the proper way to do this was with a bonfire.  You would also look for signs of certain animals - the hedgehog was one - for signs of the future.

The curious part is it is the time of the hag  (Cailleach in Irish Gaelic).  This is an old wise woman often dressed in rags and carrying a bundle.  She is supposed to be a magical being like a fairy.  On Imbolc she carries firewood for the rest of the Winter.  One of her powers is controlling the weather, so if she is going to make Winter last a long time she makes certain the day is bright and sunny so she can find as much firewood as possible. Poor weather means she must be sleeping or wants a short Winter and it will soon be over.

The more modern celebration (since Catholicism) is also called Candlemass and is associated with St Brigid in some way I can't remember other than young unmarried women make ribbons for an effigy of her.  St Brigid is supposed to visit households in the night (sort of like Santa Claus) and if she has the household is blessed and protected.  You check the ashes of the fire that has burned overnight for signs, but I never spent enough time with her to figure that out…

So many traditions out there -- it is neat how this one got tangled up in a day that is noted still.  

To try and keep touch with tradition and remember my grandmother we have a big family dinner with a lot of rich foods and lots of candles.  We don't have a fireplace, but we sing and generally do music.  It would be nice to have a bonfire some day.

 oh - the pronunciation is roughly  law ay-leh bree-djeh.   imbolc is usually pronounced with a hard c, although I've heard it with a hard g and sometimes the c is silent…  I don't know which is preferred.

 

 

There is a glow of happiness at the moment.  A wonderful little feast of roasted winter produce and nuts and a homemade pecan pie, the candles and some music. 

 

Now time to post this, bundle up and take a walk in the falling snow with Sukie so as to properly capture a bit of the now.

 

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¹ If you need to walk on glare ice ask me about tungsten studded strap-on soles for your boots.  They are incredible effective and walking in an ice storm is a thing of beauty if you have the sense to stay away from traffic and trees.

² There are many outlets for citizen science if you have an interest.  I've joined an organization does a large scale firefly census and built a simple instrument that can discriminate between firefly types (their signatures have different spectral and temporal characteristics).  You can also observe and even instrument maple trees to learn a bit more about how they function - the huge win is maple syrup if you are crazy enough.

As to the beauty of understanding nature more deeply I note a Feyman interview on the subject.  I would not criticize anyone else's appreciation of beauty, but for me how it works and how all of these pieces fit in with each other is a very deep beauty - like the rich beauty of a friend that lays hidden until you begin to know them.  

If you carefully observe and craft good questions, Nature will answer and leave you with a better understanding that leads to a richer set of questions.  That conversation of sorts has opened up great beauty.

 

 ³ Sadly I never picked up much of my Grandmother's culture - like swearing in Irish Gaelic.

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Recipe Corner

 

The pie for today's Imbolc feast.  Of course it was served with a bit of vanilla ice cream.

 

Maple Pecan Pie

 

Ingredients

° 1 unbaked pie shell

° 215 grams/2 cups pecans (coarsely chopped)

° 55 grams/¼ cup dark brown sugar

° 25 grams/¼ cup tapioca starch

° 4.5 grams/ ¾ teaspoon salt

° 240 grams/1 cup maple syrup - Grade B preferred (dark amber colored)

° 60 grams/¼ cup heavy cream

° 4 grams/1 teaspoon vanilla

° 2 large eggs

 

Technique

 

° Preheat the oven to 425°F

° Put the chopped pecans in the unbaked pie shell. Whisk together the sugar, tapioca starch and salt in a medium sized bowl. Whisk in the maple syrup, cream and vanilla. Whisk in the eggs. Pour over the pecans. Bake for 20 minutes and then turn the heat down to 350°F without opening the oven. Bake for an additional 30 minutes. Let pie cool at room temperature for at least 30 minutes before serving.

 

 

staying warm and celebration a common tradition

It is really chilly for about the first time this Winter and I found myself out in the cold without gloves and a cap for a bit too long.  In theory I shouldn't mind much - after all, I did grow up in Montana and remember taking walks in -40° weather and fierce blizzards. 

 

About a year ago I was fortunate enough to have made contact again with Jeri - a fellow classmate from Great Falls High.   In an email exchange a poem came up.  It turned out both of us had memorized it in different junior high schools and both of us have taken delight in reciting it over the years.  The poet was a Scottsman who spent most of his life in Canada, becoming famous for poems associated with the Yukon and the gold rush. 

 

A bit earlier I met Reggie Watts at a TEDx talk.  Both of us had "performed" and somehow found ourselves chatting afterwards.¹  In my talk I mentioned that I was from Montana and he told me he grew up there too.  Another minute of talking revealed we had lived within 500 feet of each other and went to the same high school albeit separated by a couple of decades.

 
It turned out Reggie knew the same poem and it was the introduction to the word moil for both of us.  

 

The world seemed very small as we talked that night.

 

 

By now you're probably curious ...  I'm afraid I couldn't get all of it from memory and had to cheat a bit.  I guess I'm out of practice.  My guess is Reggie and Jeri wouldn't have any difficulty.

 

Turn the lights down, light some candles and crack a window to the cold.Read it outloud armed with a cup of peppermint hot chocolate (recipe follows).

 

The Cremation of Sam McGee

by Robert W. Service

 

 

There are strange things done in the midnight sun

      By the men who moil for gold;

The Arctic trails have their secret tales

      That would make your blood run cold;

The Northern Lights have seen queer sights,

      But the queerest they ever did see

Was that night on the marge of Lake Lebarge

      I cremated Sam McGee.

 

Now Sam McGee was from Tennessee, where the cotton blooms and blows.

Why he left his home in the South to roam 'round the Pole, God only knows.

He was always cold, but the land of gold seemed to hold him like a spell;

Though he'd often say in his homely way that "he'd sooner live in hell."

 

On a Christmas Day we were mushing our way over the Dawson trail.

Talk of your cold! through the parka's fold it stabbed like a driven nail.

If our eyes we'd close, then the lashes froze till sometimes we couldn't see;

It wasn't much fun, but the only one to whimper was Sam McGee.

 

And that very night, as we lay packed tight in our robes beneath the snow,

And the dogs were fed, and the stars o'erhead were dancing heel and toe,

He turned to me, and "Cap," says he, "I'll cash in this trip, I guess;

And if I do, I'm asking that you won't refuse my last request."

 

Well, he seemed so low that I couldn't say no; then he says with a sort of moan:

"It's the cursèd cold, and it's got right hold till I'm chilled clean through to the bone.

Yet 'tain't being dead—it's my awful dread of the icy grave that pains;

So I want you to swear that, foul or fair, you'll cremate my last remains."

 

A pal's last need is a thing to heed, so I swore I would not fail;

And we started on at the streak of dawn; but God! he looked ghastly pale.

He crouched on the sleigh, and he raved all day of his home in Tennessee;

And before nightfall a corpse was all that was left of Sam McGee.

 

There wasn't a breath in that land of death, and I hurried, horror-driven,

With a corpse half hid that I couldn't get rid, because of a promise given;

It was lashed to the sleigh, and it seemed to say: "You may tax your brawn and brains,

But you promised true, and it's up to you to cremate those last remains."

 

Now a promise made is a debt unpaid, and the trail has its own stern code.

In the days to come, though my lips were dumb, in my heart how I cursed that load.

In the long, long night, by the lone firelight, while the huskies, round in a ring,

Howled out their woes to the homeless snows— O God! how I loathed the thing.

 

And every day that quiet clay seemed to heavy and heavier grow;

And on I went, though the dogs were spent and the grub was getting low;

The trail was bad, and I felt half mad, but I swore I would not give in;

And I'd often sing to the hateful thing, and it hearkened with a grin.

 

Till I came to the marge of Lake Lebarge, and a derelict there lay;

It was jammed in the ice, but I saw in a trice it was called the "Alice May."

And I looked at it, and I thought a bit, and I looked at my frozen chum;

Then "Here," said I, with a sudden cry, "is my cre-ma-tor-eum."

 

Some planks I tore from the cabin floor, and I lit the boiler fire;

Some coal I found that was lying around, and I heaped the fuel higher;

The flames just soared, and the furnace roared—such a blaze you seldom see;

And I burrowed a hole in the glowing coal, and I stuffed in Sam McGee.

 

Then I made a hike, for I didn't like to hear him sizzle so;

And the heavens scowled, and the huskies howled, and the wind began to blow.

It was icy cold, but the hot sweat rolled down my cheeks, and I don't know why;

And the greasy smoke in an inky cloak went streaking down the sky.

 

I do not know how long in the snow I wrestled with grisly fear;

But the stars came out and they danced about ere again I ventured near;

I was sick with dread, but I bravely said: "I'll just take a peep inside.

I guess he's cooked, and it's time I looked"; ... then the door I opened wide.

 

And there sat Sam, looking cool and calm, in the heart of the furnace roar;

And he wore a smile you could see a mile, and he said: "Please close that door.

It's fine in here, but I greatly fear you'll let in the cold and storm—

Since I left Plumtree, down in Tennessee, it's the first time I've been warm."

 

There are strange things done in the midnight sun

      By the men who moil for gold;

The Arctic trails have their secret tales

      That would make your blood run cold;

The Northern Lights have seen queer sights,

      But the queerest they ever did see

Was that night on the marge of Lake Lebarge

      I cremated Sam McGee.

 

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¹ TEDx Gotham.  I'm afraid my talk wasn't great and was very much in the shadow of Regge's amazing performance.  Mine was followed by a wonderful talk architect Craig Dykers and then the electric Juliette Powell.  As a speaker it probably makes sense to stay away from events with such serious talent.

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Recipe Corner 

 

Somehow a nice warm soup seems appropriate.  This one makes good use of carrots - use a rich vegetable broth, water just won't work.  As always all amounts are approximate

 

Carrot Soup

 

Ingredients

 

° 2 tablespoons butter

° 1 large yellow onion chopped

° 450 g carrots, peeled and diced to about 1/2 inch

° 600g  vegetable stock stock

° 1-1/2 tsp cumin seeds

° 1 tbl honey

° 1 tbl lemon juice

° 1/8 tsp allspice

° Salt and pepper

° sour cream or plain yogurt for garnish

 

Technique

 

° Melt butter in a large sauce pan over medium-high heat. Add onion and saute for 2 minutes.

° Stir in carrots and broth and bring to boil. Now cover and cut the heat to a simmer until carrots are tender.  (20 - 25 minutes)

° In a small skillet stir and toast the cumin seeds over medium-high heat until you can smell them (about 5 minutes?) Now grind them in a spice mill.

°  Puree the soup with a stick blender until smooth.  

° Whisk in the honey, lemon juice and allspice and season with salt and pepper.

° Pour the  soup into bowls and sprinkle with toasted cumin.  Add a bit of sour cream or yogurt and serve.

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Peppermint Hot Chocolate

Ingredients

° one cup heavy cream chilled in the 'fridge (half is for topping and is optional)

° 2 tbl + 1 tsp white cane sugar

° 2 cups whole milk 

° 120g 60% chocolate chopped into chunks

° a small pinch of salt

° 1/4 tsp peppermint extract

° chocolate (85% is good) for shaving to use as garnish if you like

Technique

° Whip half of the cream and the tsp of sugar into whipped cream and put back in the 'fridge

° Whisk the other half cup of cream, the sugar and milk in a pan over medium high heat and bring to nearly a boil

° Remove from heat, whisk in the chocolate, salt and peppermint until it is smooth

° Pour into mugs, add a dollop of whipped cream and shave some chocolate onto the cream

 

books and challenges

With this time of year there is a bit of reflection.  A few readers asked for my current book list and I sent out a note to several regular readers who tend to be interested in such things.  Now that many of the holidays have come some of you may be in a position where you are looking for a gift for yourself...

 

A few readers asked what I've been reading.  I read a lot, but my preference is to work on projects with friends.  Sadly this has been mostly a readying year.  But some of the books have been good.  And as the year winds down a jewel emerged that - at least for me - was above the rest.

A few weeks ago I was sent a preprint of The Lost Carving by David Esterly  - a really fine piece of work on making and doing it well.  He is a gifted writer - a real pleasure to read prose like this.  Up until then I would have recommended Sean Carroll's The Particle at the End of the Universe to non-physicists as a nice current view of the standard model. There are richer books on the subject, but this one is up to date and, with the discoveries at CERN this past year, being up to date makes all the difference.  

It isn't new, but for those who are trying to get a better handle on energy and how humanity relates to it I think the best non-technical book on the subject is David MacKay's Sustainable Energy.  An area that is extremely difficult to summarize at a good enough popular level, he comes closest.  It also may be our most pressing fundamental problem, so a deeper background for the general public is useful.

My favorite book that aids creativity isn't a book, but rather an iPad program - the application Paper.  Completely delightful, but i recommend getting all of the brushes.  The caveat is you have to like - or at least be open to sketching.  This may have one of the best computational user experiences I've seen - but these still are lacking compared to a good set of pencils and a high quality pad of paper. There has been some excellent progress on an iPad program that helps inspire musical thinking.  I'm poorly grounded here, but am spending some time with those who are deeply immersed thinking about, and experimenting with, what it takes to help people think in this space by routing around the conventional education path.

And on education I keep getting asked what computer language should my kid be learning.  Usually - "what book or online course should they use" ...  I have to note that although I've spent a good deal of my life programming, it is a tool rather than a passion and I prefer not to do it.  I have worked with some people who are amazing at the art. Like the fine art and writing there are individuals who are simply so much better at it than anyone else that their work can bring change.  I was lucky enough to have worked with four people at this level and count one as a very close friend.  With that in mind, the "wisdom" I offer is the language isn't important.  Logic and clear thinking is.  I would recommend kids at the high school level study some formal logic first and ideally pick up a bit of a human language that has a similar, but different structure than English - Latin would be ideal. Alternatively play a musical instrument - musicians seem to take to programming naturally.    I see people entering college with backgrounds in Java, Ruby, Basic (yikes!) and so on … but they also picked up a large number of bad habits that need to be unlearned.  When the time comes to learn a language I recommend something that gets you into what programming is rather than the language.  One of the best books on the subject is by a friend (I have to note this as it is a source of bias) - Bjarne Stroustrup's Programming Principles and Practice Using C++.  I've seen 10th graders who *really* want to learn use this successfully and note that people coming at the subject freshly, end up as better programmers than those who come at it with a lot of middle and high school programming experience.  This book does demand serious study - anything less will lead to failure.

Over the holidays I plan to make a tiny dent in some papers I've been meaning to read that are outside my field(s).  Then, on the 29^th, I make the decision on what I'll spend a couple of weeks of study on to get a better sense of the problem space.  That fortnight of study is my gift to myself every year - one that my first director at Bell Labs suggested as a way to become a bit more open to creative thought.  It doesn't generate the serendipity that crazy projects with friends does, but helps with a better grounding on what is happening.

happy holidays to you!

 

There is this issue of why should we be doing something - what is important to us at some deeper level?  What should we be doing as individuals?  Here is a nice piece by Neil deGrasse Tyson 

 

I have an enormous respect for Neil and the work he does as the best cheerleader for science.  I do have some issues with bits of his message, but understand were he is coming from.  It is great to have an environment, unlike the current state of American politics, where you can have great admiration for someone and simultaneously agree and disagree with them.

 

We agree on the need for grand challenges and much better science education.  Exploration has been a huge driver, but so are other challenges.  We need to better understand our relationship with Nature as well as our use of resources.  It is easy to draft a list of a dozen worthy grand challenges, but there is little will.  

 

Neil believes the best challenge is manned spaceflight and, although I think that is an interesting area, I have to disagree.  There are any number of deep challenges facing society that not only need to be attacked, but are large enough that serendipity is likely.  Neil believes that manned spaceflight - something like a mission to Mars - would ignite the imaginations of kids in America and inspire them into STEM career tracks.  I'd be delighted if he is right, but I just don't see it and there would be real problems mustering the political will.

 

I'm frustrated to see so much human energy and creativity go into making it easier for people to consume and to be entertained.  There is much larger game that isn't receiving enough attention.  And it is also frustrating to look at the state of education in America - a country with an enormous gap between those who are numerate and have a basic literacy in science and those who don't.¹  Not to mention there are some extremely serious problems facing us including some that may lead to change that is almost certainly terrible for our children and grandchildren (and us if we are under 40 or so)...

 

I certainly don't have any answers ...  a lot of untested speculation, but nothing concrete

 

Consider this a challenge for you to ponder during your spare time this holiday season.  What are the challenges that can inspire society enough to change everything and are possible and achievable?  What are the challenges that would fundamentally change education?  What would make people welcome such a challenge?

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¹ American STEM focused education is far too narrow.  To get at creativity we need to add the arts and change the approach.  Way to much to talk about.  Currently I think Finland has the best model, but I don't see an easy path to make real improvements here.  Some of you are experts in the area and are doing great work.  Such an important area for focus...

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Recipe Corner

 

Since many of us are in a sugar induced stupor from the holidays, here is a delicious and simple soup that takes advantage of produce that is seasonal.  As with most soups the amounts shown are just a starting point.

 

Apple Soup

 

Ingredients

 

° 25g butter

° 1 tablespoon olive oil

° 2 medium onions, peeled and diced

° 600g parsnips, cut into inchish pieces

° 2 garlic cloves, crushed

° 600g tart cooking apples peeled, cored, and cut into chunks (I like Bramleys if I can find them)

° 450g vegetable stock

° 150g milk  (it works ok with fat free, but is *really* good with whole milk)

° sea salt and freshly ground black pepper

 

Technique

 

° Melt the butter and oil in a large saucepan and gently fry the onions and parsnips on low heat for about 15 minutes, until the onions are softened.

° Add the garlic and apples and cook for 3 minutes more, stirring constantly

° Add the stock and bring to the boil. Now reduce the heat and simmer for about 20 minutes, until the parsnips are very soft.

° Remove from the heat and season with salt and freshly ground black pepper.

° Blend the mixture until smooth.  I like to use an immersion blending stick, but regular blenders work too

 

 

Stir in the milk, adding a little extra if required. Season to taste with salt and freshly ground black pepper.

 

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I'm a vegetarian and generally don't miss meat - I'm not attracted to the "fake" meats as too many vegetarian and vegan dishes are wonderful by themselves.  But there are a few flavors I do miss.  Here is one with fake bacon strips.  The amounts aren't critical, so I just used measuring cups rather than weighing

 

Maple Roasted Sweet Potatoes

 

Ingredients

 

° 4 average sized sweet potatoes peeled and diced

° 1/4 c olive oil

° 1/4 tsp non-iodized sea salt 

° a box of Morningstar Farms "bacon" strips

° 1 medium onion, chopped

° 2 large Gayla apples, diced

° 1/4 c Grade B Maple Syrup (you'll want something robust)

 

Technique

 

° Preheat oven to 425 ºF

° Toss sweet potatoes with olive oil and salt, put in a roasting pan and bake for 20 minutes.

° Sauté bacon over medium heat and add onions once the bacon has begun to render its fat.  Continue cooking until bacon begins to become crisp and onions are translucent.

° Throw in the apples and continue to cook for a couple of minutes.

° Add roasted sweet potatoes cook away until potatoes begin to become soft - about five minutes for me.

° Almost there! - toss with maple syrup and serve.

 

on thanksgiving

I have so much to be thankful for that it is good we celebrate this day several times a year.  Some great family members and a few astoundingly wonderful friends who I consider family.  Too many of them are at a distance, so for a few we put on a Thanksgiving celebration when they visit.

 

I'm also thankful for the wide span of interests I'm regularly exposed to.  Connecting the dots and uncovering brand new ignorance is aided by this approach and I'm lucky enough to know some very different and very brilliant minds.  It certainly adds to the quality of my own work (except writing - I doubt I'll ever sort that out properly).

 

Music and art are very important to me.  I'm not very good at music and maybe a bit better at art, but they impact me deeply and are part of how I think and solve problems.¹ Last night I heard a NPR All Things Considered report on Max Richter's recomposition of the first four concerti of Vivaldi's Il Cimento dell' Armenia e dell'invenzione - otherwise known as The Four Seasons.

 

First some background is in order...

 

I'm something of a musical omnivore these days.  The range of music that interests me has grown with time - as an undergrad it was mostly western classical music, folk songs and some emerging electronic music.  When I went to grad school on Long Island I bought a VW Rabbit and wanted a vanity license plate.  

 

At the time I was deeply into the late baroque and early classical period and decided on VIVALDI on my Montana plates (I was still a resident).²   Having them generated more than a few stories, but my favorite took place at a Mobil gas station in Rocky Point, LI.

 

I had just filled it and gave the attendant my credit card - full service was still standard in New York in those days.  She went to the back of the car to write down the license plate.  Watching in my rearview mirror (she was about 18 or 20 and a pretty blonde), I noticed a look of confusion spread over her face.  She slowly walked back to the station, completed the transaction and started walking back...   Halfway from me her gait suddenly changed and her countenance switched into that smile of delight that comes with an "aha!" moment.  She handed the card and receipt to me and said with a knowing confidence

 

"Vivaldi - that's the vampire, right?!"

 

How could you possibly ruin such a perfect moment...   I gave her a knowing and impressed look and said - "you nailed it.  You wouldn't imagine how few people come up with that..."

 

Such a delightful moment - one is thankful for them whenever and wherever they appear.

 

I add the music is wonderful and something of a revelation if you know the Vivaldi work well.  It is very different, but added to my appreciation and understanding of the original - I've already listened to it three times.  Available on iTunes and probably elsewhere. Essential  stuff!

 

I'm also thankful for delightful little hacks that private citizens come up with.  Jheri points out this delightful bit of social hackery to help non-Danes pronounce street names in Copenhagen.

 

 

WTPh? - What the Phonics from Andrew Spitz on Vimeo.

 

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Recipe Corner 

 

Two items this time.  A quick improvement (at least for me) on Thanksgiving cranberry sauce followed by a good side dish for this time of the year.  The ratios probably aren't that important - particularly the sugar .. more if you like it sweeter, less for a tarter sauce.

 

 

Cranberry and Blueberry Sauce

Ingredients

° 350g  cranberries (thawed if frozen)

° 175g water

° 200g white cane sugar

° 225g blueberries (thawed if frozen)

° 2 tsp vanilla extract (I use a good homemade extract)

Technique

° cook cranberries in the water over medium-high heat until the cranberries begin to pop (about 3 minutes)

° add sugar and blueberries and cook until mixture comes to a full boil.  Continue on boil until the mixture thickens a bit - maybe 3 minutes

° remove from heat and add vanilla -> refrigerate

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I love celeriac.  Cutting them is much easier than you might think, but be sure and wash out all of the dirt.  You need a good vegetable stock for this one.  Store-bought sock will not cut it.

Celeriac Gratin

Ingredients

° 1 large onion finely sliced

° 2 tbl extra virgin olive oil

° 750 g vegetable stock (I made a really rich one based on mushrooms)

° 1 tsp cider vinegar

° 1 largish garlic clove, smashed

° 3 sprigs thyme

° a large celeriac (mine was 600g after peeling)

° 180g eating class apple

° 50g hazelnuts, lightly toasted, skinned and roughly chopped

° a sea salt (I like Maldon) and fresh ground black pepper

Technique

° preheat oven to 400°F

° heat the oil over medium heat in a pan and gently fry the onion until soft and translucent.  Add the stock vinegar, garlic and thyme; crank the heat to medium high and bring to a boil.

° quarter the celeriac and thinly slice.  Add the celeriac to the pan; reduce heat to simmer, cover and let cook for about 15 minutes.  Season to taste..

° move half the celeriac and onions to a shallow ovenproof dish with a slotted spoon.  Peel and thinly slice the apple and arrange slices on top of the celeriac.  Pour about 200g of the liquid over the pile, scatter  the hazelnuts over the top and back 45 minutes.

 

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¹ Two of my senses, hearing and vision,  are non-orthogonal. Having crisply orthogonal senses makes a lot of sense if you are a hunter and potential prey, but the specialization that comes with civilization has allowed some of us with this condition to survive.  I find it a great aid in doing physics and math, although I would love to experience crisply orthogonal sight and sound for awhile.

² The plates were stolen four times.  In New Jersey I used to have the plates WEASL 1 (we have ferrets) everyone who asked assumed I was a lawyer ... go figure...

 

 

artifacts of patents and licensing

A friend wrote with a pointer to a piece on how the Apple/Samsung verdict harms consumers.

 

Ah intellectual property ..  

 

I was compelled to reply and perhaps it is worth sharing even though Om said far too much will be written on the subject.

 

I think this is just the nature of how patents and licensing work when a technology is perturbed - something we've had since the time of Watt and have seen repeated over and over. In the end it is probably good, although locally good and bad products will be impacted - some positively and some negatively. Google was way to caviler artificially reducing the mfg cost of its operating system to zero. There were and are numerous patent violations - not much has been written, but I'm told Microsoft makes $8 to $15 on most of the Android phones sold in the US, Europe and Japan. There will be a lot of court action for a few years, but ultimately there will be licensing on the sticky points all around. The marginal mfgs will drop out and new players will have to either have their own innovation (I hate that word - way too fluffy) or be large enough to pay for licensing.

It would be nice if all were robust, but that isn't going to happen with the current system.¹  Individual patents come into play, but  licensing agreements at this level usually involve portfolios and you have to have relevant portfolios to have any standing.  Google had almost none and the purchase of Motorola was probably driven by a desire for an instant portfolio so they could play the game.  Unfortunately for them it appears as though Motorola's portfolio is not terribly relevant and they may have wasted billions of dollars.

I would be surprised if Apple ends up with more than 15% of the market in 5 years (and that would be 15 percent of a billion phones per year or more - still an incredible business if there are any margins). I also believe that Microsoft is the potential big winner in this round. Their OS may be cheaper than Android with its licensing fees and uncertainty and the UI is both clean and novel (Apple and Microsoft, despite the hard words, have elaborate cross licensing agreements and an agreement not to use each other's UI features - both have very competent UI and UX teams - something Google lacks)

Now the bar is raised for what innovation has to be and there will be companies other than Apple doing the original work that appeals to end users.

For me the importance brilliance of the iPhone is it broke the carrier's stranglehold on tech, design and how people used these portable computing devices. Nokia could have built something as good or better, but companies like AT&T and Verizon were their customers and not the end user. They basically wouldn't let Nokia, which had its own stranglehold on much of the mobile market, be creative.²  We would still be in 2006 with only marginal change if the iPhone didn't happen.  

It is extremely important to note that when the iPhone was introduced it was roundly criticized for only having a single button and no hardware keyboard. Most of the tech  pundits as well as its competition predicted it would fail.  A few years later everyone says the design was obvious...  funny how that happens, eh?³

In order to do well Apple needs to figure out how to destroy the iPhone rather than allow the competition to do it. That will be very hard work.

I don't worry much about the impact as people change their phones every few years. What bothers me is the stagnation at the carrier level and the very high degree of lockin on things like spectrum (an artificial concept dictated by tech established by 1930 and reinforced by policy) and enormously high infrastructure costs. Much better things could have happened... We pay far too much for far too few bits per second and are forced to deal with congestion and scarcity that are not dictated by the underlying physics...

 

I'm convinced there will be good competition and real progress, but it is important to remember that this has played out many times before.  The trials will take a few years and produce a lot of smoke - the important things to watch are the licensing agreements and how they shift the game as well as new ideas that happen to be outside the scope of current patents.

 

I'm not happy with the patent system, but it does create a stable framework and can encourage competition.  If you are interested in this sort of thing I recommend reading the history of intellectual property disputes.  The development of the airplane and what happened to the Wright brothers is particularly interesting.  That is a cautionary tale Steve Jobs stressed with associates.

 

It is clear that anyone who wishes to play in this space at a deep level needs to combine social and technical clue.  That is a major change for this industry.  And a final note: while this may seem messy it doesn't hold a candle to the train wreck that is copyright.

__________

¹ There are two major types of patents that are relevant - design patents and utility patents.  We tend to think of utility patents, but the design of something is also protectable under the system.  Many elements that feed into user experience happen to be design patents, which is almost virgin territory for the tech world.  

² Decoupled customers and end users can be a real problem.  It may be this is ultimately an issue for companies like Google and Facebook and gives an opening to a very clever challenger.  It is certainly a huge issue in American politics.

³ This is historically true for some of the largest ideas and best design.  Often we don't stumble into the really great solutions but, because they are great, they seem completely obvious once we see them. Something like the iPhone's UI and UX is subtle and extremely complex - very difficult to get right.  Most of those elements are missed with quick high level dismissal of how original it seems.  You might say the same thing about something like special relativity, which is based on simple geometryand can be taught to a smart 14 year old.

 ___________

Recipe Corner 

 

Well - this is too simple to be a recipe, but it is trivial and turned out very well.   One of my standard breakfasts involves a bowl of steel-cut oatmeal.  I mix various things in and this morning found a winner.  

Cut a plantain into half inch rounds, drizzle with olive oil, sprinkle on some sea salt (non-iodized as heat will be used), some brown sugar and some pumpkin pie spice.  Spread it on a baking sheet and roast it in a 450° F oven for about 25 or 30 minutes turning them roughly half way through.    It really smells good!  Mix it in with a your oatmeal - I topped with some crushed pecans, cinnamon and blueberries and a bit of maple syrup. And had it with milk.  

Wow it was good!

And also food related.  A youtube video on a clever technique for separating egg whites and yolks.  This sort of thing has been done approximately forever in introductory physics demonstrations, but it is still deeply cool.  

 

a birthday

The Omenti blog is a year old today.  When I started I gave it a year and decided to write about what seemed interesting at the time without editing for an hour or so perhaps once or twice a week.  The frequency turned out to be a bit higher - there were 125 posts.  

 

The one year mark came and it was time to decide if the effort was worthwhile.  It certainly isn't a popular place, but I'm not terribly interested in that.  It has started a few conversations - which was the original aim.  Not many, but I finally came to the conclusion there are enough to justify the time spent.  

 

A huge thank you to all who continued the discussions and who helped spark and fuel new ones and to those who had commens on both sides of the "should I continue the blog" question!   I wish I could offer something like a nice piece of cheesecake as part of a thank you celebration.

 

I don't know what I'll be writing about and suspect the path will wander as it has.  If you have ideas and comments, please let me know. And if you know of others who might enjoy the blog, feel free to point them at it.

 

Tonight I'll be in the city for a dinner with friends, but perhaps a celebration in the near future.  Perhaps something like a slice of pie, cheesecake or a good brownie from a great bakery - I'll let someone else do the baking this time. 

 

In the meantime a recipe:

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The format of this one is not standard, but rather from an email I sent to one of you a year ago. I won't translate as it seems better in the narrative form.  

This is the time of year that excellent tomatoes begin to appear.  If you find some with amazing flavor and want an equally amazing dinner the trick is to keep things simple.  This  is a tomato and pasta dish I dream about all Winter and Fall.  If the ingredients are great it can be spectacular and it also happens to be amazingly simple

 

Simple Summer Pasta and Tomatoes

Some time ago I had a very simple tomato and pasta dish.  The tomatoes were
in chucks and not really cooked.  It would only work if they were perfect so
I gave it a try.  Here is about what I did.  This would be enough for two
hungry people or four people if served as a side course.

Two really amazingly blimpishly ripe tomatoes that are going to have great
flavor.  I would go with an heirloom tomato as the new ones have so much
goodness bred out of them.  My guess is I had maybe about one and a half
pounds of tomato.  Chop these into half inch pieces and scape them into a
big enough bowl (how is that for precision?)  be sure and get some of the
juice that is sitting on the cutting board.

Pour some good extra virgin olive oil on them.  Maybe two glugs (another quality
measurement).  Put a good amount of a good finishing salt (Malden is great) and freshly ground pepper on them stirring to mix.  Let them sit.

Start some water boiling for the pasta and throw some salt in.  Cheap salt
of course

Now chop a strong red onion or some scallions into slivers.  Maybe about a
quarter cup

Chop a handful of good arugula 

Cook about a half pound of pasta and try to stay away from the marinating
tomatoes

Place the onions on top of the tomatoes spreading them out, then make a layer
of arugula choppings

Now dump the pasta on top of the layered mixture in the bowl and leave it
for a two or three minutes.  To deal with the frustration grate some good
cheese for a topping and top it.  The heat from the pasta is slightly cooking the ingredients beneath, but just barely.

Now mix it all up and serve.

   

leading horses as well as choosing them

Earlier today I received a note from Jheri about her grades for thetwo remote courses she recently finished.  I had offered to help her with differential equations if she had any problems with the course, but other than suggest and grade some interesting practice problems I didn't do anything.  She is exceptionally motivated and breezed through this and a biology course. It must have been challenging as she has a career that involves a boatload (well - planeload) of international travel.  

 

So three cheers for Jheri!  I am toasting her with some proper homemade ice cream tonight.

 

Jheri is now in her mid 20s and was a poor student in high school.  There were some reasons for this, but the bottom line is that she wasn't ready to learn.  We have an education system that assumes a readiness on the part of the student across many subjects that is probably optimal for a small minority.  But now she wants it and is focused on learning biology and has been finding math and science come easil to her.  I'm not surprised - she has a sparkling curious mind and has discovered the wonderful ignorance that science provides..  She has a career, but is getting a bit of schooling in her spare time and will soon quit and go full time.  I wouldn't be surprised to see her go on for an advanced degree.

 

I'm finding something similar about myself.  I was extremely interested in math and science as a kid and far to focused. (another Jeri knew me a bit then and will probably vouch for that)  Then I found myself as an undergrad in a school that was really a glorified trade school.  I tested out of many of the "non important" subjects and continued my singular focus.  Grad school was a mentor relation that focused almost entirely on physics.  As a result I'm extremely narrow - something that has been bothering me a lot. I have been developing interests in history, art and music playing with these a bit as a curious amateur. Perhaps one day I'll go to a real university and learn how to ask a few questions in these areas in much greater detail.  At least I am identifying my ignorance and am curious enough to learn.  It doesn't matter that I don't know much - at least not to me.  

 

Being ready to learn happens in areas you may not immediately suspect.  The men's volleyball team at UC Irvine took the NCAA Division 1 championship this past weekend.  Except for volleyball they have an unremarkable athletic department, but head coach John Speraw is one of those remarkable characters who is both cerebral and humble.  He knows that he doesn't know and seems to delight in learning.

 

Speraw hasn't been with Irvine that long, but has managed to put together three national championships.  During the last season he raised eyebrows when he hired a female psychologist with no volleyball experience as one of his assistant coaches - even though the program is too small to support full time assistant coaches.  This weekend he praised her noting she gave him and the team the right tools to do the remarkable.  Of course they, as an organization, had to be radically different from the standard men's volleyball team in order to understand, modify and implement what she was telling them.  Speraw observes, experiments and learns from his successes and failures.  He has turned his staff onto his techniques and the players are doing the same.  UC Irvine now has a learning organization that is crushing organizations with rich histories and much larger financial resources.  My guess is more than a few men's programs will hire psychologists and most (all?) of them will be too inflexible to learn and adapt.  In the meantime John will find other tools.

 

One wonders about the parallels with other organizations - corporations for example.  

 

When are companies ready to learn and can you identify them by the questions they are asking?  Does their thinking become calcified over time and do they see a need to learn and adapt?  Where do they find the questions to learn from and what are their mechanisms for dealing with the questions? Do they have an institutional learning process and an institutional memory to take advantage of their learnings?  Do they recognize the value of failure?  Do they recognize the value of play?  Are those charged with running the company curious enough to ask questions or have they followed a path that has given them success to date giving them an artificial sense of confidence?   How do they select and promote employees at all levels and is the ability and readiness to learn part of the process?

 

My guess is learning organizations are probably rare.  I'm reasonably familiar with Apple and Pixar and both are great examples where learning is central. I'm also familiar with many others that are mostly unable - or at least unready - to learn. 

 

Is your organization curious enough?  Does it actively identify, cultivate and celebrate its ignorance?  Is it diverse enough to connect dots and identify potentially new areas of ignorance  - areas that, when explored by the right people will illuminate opportunity that others hadn't considered.

 

Think about the last paragraph and imagine Apple and Pixar. Try it again with average organizations you know.

 

 It makes me think of how new ideas and techniques are identified and, if useful, implemented.   Many companies follow bandwagons - some companies sort out the world by asking the right questions and blaze their own paths, but many become little more than buzzword compliant with a considerable amount of time, talent and money in the process.

 

I think data mining and "big data" (I dislike both terms for a variety of reasons - sit me down with some cold milk and fresh cookies and I'll go into detail) are a great example of the potential success and failure of institutional learning.  A few organizations will understand what they are doing deeply enough to be able to play in this area effectively, but many are probably going to fail as has been true with many "next big things" over time.

 

You really need to understand something deeply enough to know if there is a there there.  I was drawn to physics as, in principal, it is so simple.  Simple enough that you have some hope of asking fundamental questions in a productive fashion.  But add a bit of complexity and the world rapidly becomes far too complex to understand at a fundamental level.  There may be levels of possible understanding that describe it that, if you are sufficiently clever, allow you identify those techniques that will work for your organization.

 

The term "data" is highly contextual - so much that I try not to use it.  It isn't a fundamental piece of information, but rather is a cloud of information surrounding the core of what you think it is.  Some of this cloud may be obvious and some may be hidden.  As an example consider this well-known description of an email problem.  The system is relatively simple (I've written successful email gateways so they must be simple), but the description assumes you have a bit of familiarity with the subject.  Feel free to skip over it if your eyes glaze over - the point is there was an obscure condition that eluded detection resulting in some puzzling behavior.

 

The following is the 500-mile email story in the form it originally appeared, in a post to sage-members on Sun, 24 Nov 2002.:

From trey@sage.org Fri Nov 29 18:00:49 2002
Date: Sun, 24 Nov 2002 21:03:02 -0500 (EST)
From: Trey Harris <trey@sage.org>
To: sage-members@sage.org
Subject: The case of the 500-mile email (was RE: [SAGE] Favorite impossible
    task?)

Here's a problem that *sounded* impossible...  I almost regret posting the
story to a wide audience, because it makes a great tale over drinks at a
conference. :-)  The story is slightly altered in order to protect the
guilty, elide over irrelevant and boring details, and generally make the
whole thing more entertaining.

I was working in a job running the campus email system some years ago when
I got a call from the chairman of the statistics department.

"We're having a problem sending email out of the department."

"What's the problem?" I asked.

"We can't send mail more than 500 miles," the chairman explained.

I choked on my latte.  "Come again?"

"We can't send mail farther than 500 miles from here," he repeated.  "A
little bit more, actually.  Call it 520 miles.  But no farther."

"Um... Email really doesn't work that way, generally," I said, trying to
keep panic out of my voice.  One doesn't display panic when speaking to a
department chairman, even of a relatively impoverished department like
statistics.  "What makes you think you can't send mail more than 500
miles?"

"It's not what I *think*," the chairman replied testily.  "You see, when
we first noticed this happening, a few days ago--"

"You waited a few DAYS?" I interrupted, a tremor tinging my voice.  "And
you couldn't send email this whole time?"

"We could send email.  Just not more than--"

"--500 miles, yes," I finished for him, "I got that.  But why didn't you
call earlier?"

"Well, we hadn't collected enough data to be sure of what was going on
until just now."  Right.  This is the chairman of *statistics*. "Anyway, I
asked one of the geostatisticians to look into it--"

"Geostatisticians..."

"--yes, and she's produced a map showing the radius within which we can
send email to be slightly more than 500 miles.  There are a number of
destinations within that radius that we can't reach, either, or reach
sporadically, but we can never email farther than this radius."

"I see," I said, and put my head in my hands.  "When did this start?  A
few days ago, you said, but did anything change in your systems at that
time?"

"Well, the consultant came in and patched our server and rebooted it.
But I called him, and he said he didn't touch the mail system."

"Okay, let me take a look, and I'll call you back," I said, scarcely
believing that I was playing along.  It wasn't April Fool's Day.  I tried
to remember if someone owed me a practical joke.

I logged into their department's server, and sent a few test mails.  This
was in the Research Triangle of North Carolina, and a test mail to my own
account was delivered without a hitch.  Ditto for one sent to Richmond,
and Atlanta, and Washington.  Another to Princeton (400 miles) worked.

But then I tried to send an email to Memphis (600 miles).  It failed.
Boston, failed.  Detroit, failed.  I got out my address book and started
trying to narrow this down.  New York (420 miles) worked, but Providence
(580 miles) failed.

I was beginning to wonder if I had lost my sanity.  I tried emailing a
friend who lived in North Carolina, but whose ISP was in Seattle.
Thankfully, it failed.  If the problem had had to do with the geography of
the human recipient and not his mail server, I think I would have broken
down in tears.

Having established that--unbelievably--the problem as reported was true,
and repeatable, I took a look at the sendmail.cf file.  It looked fairly
normal.  In fact, it looked familiar.

I diffed it against the sendmail.cf in my home directory.  It hadn't been
altered--it was a sendmail.cf I had written.  And I was fairly certain I
hadn't enabled the "FAIL_MAIL_OVER_500_MILES" option.  At a loss, I
telnetted into the SMTP port.  The server happily responded with a SunOS
sendmail banner.

Wait a minute... a SunOS sendmail banner?  At the time, Sun was still
shipping Sendmail 5 with its operating system, even though Sendmail 8 was
fairly mature.  Being a good system administrator, I had standardized on
Sendmail 8.  And also being a good system administrator, I had written a
sendmail.cf that used the nice long self-documenting option and variable
names available in Sendmail 8 rather than the cryptic punctuation-mark
codes that had been used in Sendmail 5.

The pieces fell into place, all at once, and I again choked on the dregs
of my now-cold latte.  When the consultant had "patched the server," he
had apparently upgraded the version of SunOS, and in so doing
*downgraded* Sendmail.  The upgrade helpfully left the sendmail.cf
alone, even though it was now the wrong version.

It so happens that Sendmail 5--at least, the version that Sun shipped,
which had some tweaks--could deal with the Sendmail 8 sendmail.cf, as most
of the rules had at that point remained unaltered.  But the new long
configuration options--those it saw as junk, and skipped.  And the
sendmail binary had no defaults compiled in for most of these, so, finding
no suitable settings in the sendmail.cf file, they were set to zero.

One of the settings that was set to zero was the timeout to connect to the
remote SMTP server.  Some experimentation established that on this
particular machine with its typical load, a zero timeout would abort a
connect call in slightly over three milliseconds.

An odd feature of our campus network at the time was that it was 100%
switched.  An outgoing packet wouldn't incur a router delay until hitting
the POP and reaching a router on the far side.  So time to connect to a
lightly-loaded remote host on a nearby network would actually largely be
governed by the speed of light distance to the destination rather than by
incidental router delays.

Feeling slightly giddy, I typed into my shell:

$ units
1311 units, 63 prefixes

You have: 3 millilightseconds
You want: miles
        * 558.84719
        / 0.0017893979

"500 miles, or a little bit more."

 

 

This example is really easy - it involved a well-defined system built around logical constructs.¹  Understanding humans and human behavior is much more difficult and anyone who says they can is naïve and/or lying.  Data mining may give candidate shards of information, but they are highly contextual and you must know the steps used to gather, filter and process the information and how reliable they are.  You had damn well know the errors and error propagation.  And even then the resulting information may not be terribly useful as human behavior isn't exactly an axiomatic system.

 

It is more important to develop a deep understanding of what you need to know.  You must learn what it is you need to know and how to get a "good enough" approximation.  For companies like Apple, Pixar, Trader Joe's, and Lululemon success doesn't rest on data mining, but on other techniques.  It is likely data mining techniques wouldn't be terrible useful to these companies for their current products.  It may be that Apple finds some great uses as Siri builds out, but for now great design doesn't rest on it.

 

I suspect the companies successful with data mining will be vendors who sell to the masses and don't really care about the results as long as the money keeps coming in along with a few companies who have learned there is a solid niche for them and can ask the right questions to know the information produced is robust enough to make a material difference in their bottom line.  I suspect the later group will be made up with companies who are indeed ready to learn.

_________

I'm very proud of Jheri!  Here is the ice cream I'll make in her honor defrosting some wild blueberries that were picked last Summer at peak season.  I'll follow it with a quick recipe for something really simple.

The photo is of Colleen enjoying the same recipe on one of her visits.  You always give the dasher to the honored guest.

There are many ways to make ice cream - I use a simple refrigerated freezer that gets reasonably cold.  Liquid nitrogren techniques are even better if you have access.  Drop me a note if you are interested.  Also I have more than a few great ice cream recipes from years of experimentation starting with Steve in the dorm basement at Stony Brook.  We literally wore out three freezers during our experiments.

 

Blueberry Ice Cream

       Ingredients

           

        (all ingredients should be very fresh)

° 2 large pasteurized eggs 

° 1.25 c white sugar (if the berries are extra sweet, cut the sugar a bit)

° 2 c blueberries - or flash frozen from last season

° juice of 1/2 lemon

° 2 c heavy cream

° 1 c whole milk

Technique

• toss blueberries, lemon juice, 1/2 c sugar in a small bowl, cover and refrigerate for a few hours tossing every half hour or so

• wisk eggs until fluffy, wisk in the sugar a bit at a time and then blend in the cream and milk

• mash the berry mix by hand and mix with dairy mixture

• churn freeze and season if you can stand the wait - I usually just eat it immediately!

 

^{OK now the simple recipe.}

The Un-Egg Cream

Too simple to talk about ingredients or technique.  I like the idea of an egg cream and this is a simple variation.  Get some seltzer or, better yet, Cherry 7-Up chilled to near freezing.  Pour some milk based drink, properly chilled into the glass - perhaps 50 grams or so (about two ounces).  Pour about five or six times as much of the bubbly fluid on top and rapidly stir with a long thin spoon.  

Very refreshing.  My favorite combination is Sunkist Naturals Pina Colada Protein Smoothie and Cherry 7-Up (diet or regular ... diet is probably somewhat healthier)

^_______

¹ There is a class of computer "failures" that are, at their hearts, insufficiently understood systems.  Often "data" is the issue

rules of thumb and approximations

An aspiring chef was taking about some of the rules of thumb she is learning 

 

° to tear Saran Wrap, put your thumb on the W of the box

° for potato salad use one and a half medium potatoes and an egg per person

° good popcorn pops to 33 cups for every cup of seeds

° use a third the amount of a dried herb to replace its fresh version

° food cost is usually about 25% to 30% of sales

° drive through sales are 40% to 50% of a fast food restaurant's business

° hamburger should be cooked to at least 155° F 

° for catering you should have a half pound of uncooked meat and three quarters of a pound of side dishes per person

° leave the oven door cracked open when broiling in an electric oven, closed when using gas

° ...

 

I mentioned a calendar trick and, without effort, dozens come to mind: 

 

° In any calendar year 4/4, 6/6, 8/8, 10/10 and 12/12 will fall on the same weekday - Wednesday for 2012...

° An average adult of normal weight requires about 100 watts of power from food

° skeletal muscle is about 20% efficient

° a car with an internal combustion engine radiates about three quarters of the energy in the gasoline it burns as waste heat 

° a person on a bicycle is about three times as efficient as someone who is just walking

° the average adult male in good physical shape should be able to provide a kilowatt-hour of physical work in a day.

° the average home uses about one kilowatt of power

° the average nuclear power plant generates about a billion watts of power - so it can run the homes in a city with a million residents (San Diego is very close to this)

° electric motors are about 90% efficient

° a pound of fat is equivalent to about 3,500 Calories

° fat, pound for pound, has a similar amount of energy as gasoline

° losing more than three percent of your weight per month in a diet is medically dangerous

° fewer than five percent of dieters are at or below their starting weight two years later (the surest way to gain weight is to go on a diet)

° there are about Pi * 10⁷ seconds in a year and about 8,800 hours in a year

° it takes about an acre of land to feed a person

° getting your energy from beef requires about ten times as much plant energy as just eating the plants

° about 1000 watts of solar power per meter makes it to the ground with the Sun directly overheat on a perfectly clear day

° molecules in an ideal gas at room temperature have an average kinetic energy of about 1/40^th of an electron volt.

° digital music needs to be sampled at least at twice its highest frequency

° when estimating angular widths stretch your arm out: your finger tip is about 1°; the distance across your index, middle and ring fingers is about 5°; your fist 10°; the space between your outstretched pinky and index finger 15°, and the span between your outstretched thumb and index finger is about 25°

° the angular size of the sun and moon are both about a half degree

Any field will have rules of thumb for quickly making approximations with very little work.  You can probably list a few dozen with five minutes of reflection (if you have some interesting ones add them as comments).

 

The etymology of the term is hazy, but the sources I've seen either relate it to an approximation for length based on the thumb (inch and thumb are commonly linked in European languages) or for some agricultural purpose like the depth for planting seeds. 

 

I find it useful to make many back of the envelope calculations as I come to grips with a problem.  There are a lot of tricks - units analysis (which tells you mc² has the units of energy, mc³ or mc don't.  Many calculations are speeded along with drawings for visualization and approximations for doing mental or back of the envelope math.   I'm a big fan of slide rules.  Learning to use one gives you a natural sense of what a logarithm is.  You had to know roughly what the answer might be and keep track of the order of magnitude in your head.  I was banned from using mine when invited to some corporate strategy sessions at a big telecom that I used to work for -- I was out-calculating the guys who were using laptops (they often got their answers wrong to 8 significant decimal places) and it was somehow wrong to have a researcher doing that...  I recommend learning how to use one if you want a more intimate relationship with back of the envelop calculations.

 

There is probably a lot of information about any field embedded in its rules of thumb and how they change with time.